Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness

[J. Wilhelm]

The most compelling argument for extreme caution so far has been an experiment performed by scientists, precisely to answer the question of how many mutations it takes for the antibodies to fail to stop a highly mutated Sars Cov2 virus. The scientists assembled an artificial spike protein with all the known Covid mutations at the time (I don't know if it was this year or earlier, I heard it on NPR from an interview today). In the experiment they collected antibodies from both survivors of Covid and vaccinated people, whose antibodies are known to fight all the most recent Sars Cov2 variants, and then set out to mix them in petri dishes together to see if the antibodies would bind to the highly mutated spike protein. The antibodies of both survivors and vaccinated people failed 100% of the time to engage the modified spike. So this is the cause for pessimism among scientists.

But all things being equal, this is not unexpected. It's obvious that if the spike protein is very different, the Y-shaped antibodies will not lock together with the spike. The question still remains how effective are the antibodies we can make now. We just don't know until they perform the experiment.

DATA!
BASED ON SCIENCE!

thank you J

prf mumbles

I found a transcript of the interview. It's an interview with two science reporters and snippets of interviews with various scientists.

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/30/1060185866/what-we-know-about-the-omicron-variant

They discuss the experiment above, but they also provide two alternatives to the antibodies as the "sole" defense.

One of them is the solution provided by Pfizer: a new pill called Paxlovid, which not only can be used to treat infections, but it's a sort of a prophylactic capable of stopping you from getting sick. Pfizer is confident that the mutations in the spike will not affect the effectiveness of the pill. It still requires you t be aware if you've been exposed to covid in order to function as a prophylactic.

The second alternative is the booster shot. A researcher from the University of Texas, Galveston pointed out that boosters do more than just bring your antibody levels up. They force the human body to enhance it's ability to produce a wider range of antibodies. Researchers found that after a third shot, the body can produce different sets of antibodies that are capable of targeting other protein spikes apart from the experiment target.

[rovingjack]

there are at least 3 confirmed cases of Omicron in the US. It's still early to call it yet but the spread rate seem to be faster than previous strains (but how much of that is discovery rates and not spread rate (I mean they don't have a point of origin and patient zero for this strain so there could easily be hundreds or thousands who have it or have already had it and recovered without knowing). The first discovered cases are not an accurate reflection of transmisbility or virolance. For example when we hadn't found cases outside of africa yet the surge in numbers was a more rapid rising curve than even Delta, by a factor of 4.5 at one point, data I'm seeing now suggest more along the lines of 2.5. and I expect that will continue to go down.

Meanwhile hospital admission for this strain are also above the numbers and ratios for Delta, by a significant amount, but again those numbers may go down as the sample size and timeline change. and the numbers at one point suggested potentially higher rates of teens and young adults than previous variants where having worse cases.

but even beside the new strain, my landlord and his wife just got exposed to covid from visiting unvaccinated relatives for thanksgiving (and then unknowingly exposed me before I went to visit my family). so I'd hazard a guess that we will likely see a spike from thanksgiving, and before we know it a christmas spike, and before too long after that the kids taking it back to schools and universities. I think we are going to be looking at some not good new by the second anniversary.

[Sorontar]

One hope by some commenters is that Omicron is less powerful than Delta but more dominant. By this it gets more people infected with less effect on their health, but helping their body develop better resistance against other variants. Thus, it helps "kill off" the virus and thus stop the deadly nature of the pandemic.

Alas, as you have been pointing out, we don't have enough evidence yet to decide if any of this is true.

Sorontar

[J. Wilhelm]

One hope by some commenters is that Omicron is less powerful than Delta but more dominant. By this it gets more people infected with less effect on their health, but helping their body develop better resistance against other variants. Thus, it helps "kill off" the virus and thus stop the deadly nature of the pandemic.

Alas, as you have been pointing out, we don't have enough evidence yet to decide if any of this is true.

Sorontar

Sounds too good to be true. That the spike evolved due to evolutionary pressure is not in question.But the rest of it's RNA? What's the evolutionary pressure to drive it to be less harmful? It's way too soon,even for a virus to become an Andromeda Strain". Part of the interview above is that scientists believe Omicron was developed inside one immunocompromised patient, like a cancer patient, whose immune system couldn't exterminate the virus. Normally, an "Andromeda Strain" is made when too many infected people die too soon, thus hampering the transmission, and thus life cycle of the virus. Over a long time a virus like Ebola becomes benign, because it can't afford to kill too many people before spreading. That evolutionary pressure isn't present for Omicron.

[rovingjack]

although pessimism returning does remind me of my case of the shingles this summer, and considering that covid seems to effect the senses of smell and taste, it worries me that like a chicken pox settles in the nervous system to emerge years later when stressors open it back up, and becomes shingles. might it be possible that one or more strains of covid takes up camp in the sensory nerves with a risk for reemerging years down the line to do some damage to those that had it?

purely paranoid speculation I admit. buuut, also a good reason to get the vaccine and never contract the virus if you can avoid it.

elsewhere I made a snarky comment that the real worst part will come in a few years when those who watch the long haulers now will at least get a heads up as they begin to develop neurodegenerative disorders (as the disease seems to impact the sense of smell and taste which are senses that are effected by things like parkinsons and dementia). and these would be the canary in the coal mine for the larger scale covid recovered population beginning to see neuro degenerative disorders, I expand on this hypothetical with projections of the economic burden of even 3% of the recovered infected confronting parkinsons, or dementia like symptoms, and the emotional strain that might lead to a rise in those seeking a way to escape the decline.

It was in part fueled by my own crap mood because I've had a lot of lower leg spasming for the last 3 weeks.

well, turns out that there are a few cases of parkinsons like illness in cases of survivors. as well as a healthy amount of 'long haulers' are reporting persistent tremors, a sense of vibration, mood and thinking disruption and sleep disruption.

The speculation is that potential auto immune disorder targetting the nervous system, in part because of covids effect on the nervous system, might be a factor, as well as speculation that covids signs of effecting the blood clotting as reported early on in the pandemic might either open the blood brain barrier or lead to the conditions that cause vascular parkinsons and vascular dementia.

but boy howdy does that worry me a bit. I guess there is nothing for it but to wait and see.

I would really like it be proven to be imagining things and worrying too much. I will gladly take the hit on this, for it never to come to pass.

A new study of long Covid patients is shedding light on a combination of underreported symptoms, including Parkinson's-like tremors and internal vibrations, that are severely impacting the lives of those affected.

- https://www.salon.com/2021/12/03/tremors-and-internal-vibrations-long-patients-are-reporting-parkinsons-like-symptoms/

[Rockula]

My Sister-In-Law caught Covid in May 2020. She was taken to ICU and whilst on the ventilator she suffered a stroke.
The Doctor said the lack of oxygen had caused the stroke.
Nobody was able to visit her for three months. Not even her husband.
After about 12 weeks in hospital she was moved in August 2020 to a care home as she was no longer able to co-ordinate, walk or speak properly.
It later became clear she was suffering further cognitive dysfunction and an apparent early onset of dementia.
This week we are informed she's finally leaving the care home to move into 'sheltered accommodation' with her husband.
They have now diagnosed Parkinsons.
She is 64.

It's not just Covid. It's what comes after.

[J. Wilhelm]

My Sister-In-Law caught Covid in May 2020. She was taken to ICU and whilst on the ventilator she suffered a stroke.
The Doctor said the lack of oxygen had caused the stroke.
Nobody was able to visit her for three months. Not even her husband.
After about 12 weeks in hospital she was moved in August 2020 to a care home as she was no longer able to co-ordinate, walk or speak properly.
It later became clear she was suffering further cognitive dysfunction and an apparent early onset of dementia.
This week we are informed she's finally leaving the care home to move into 'sheltered accommodation' with her husband.
They have now diagnosed Parkinsons.
She is 64.

It's not just Covid. It's what comes after.

There's so many things we don't know about the virus yet. We do know that the virus has presented in brain samples. Sounds like it triggered a chain reaction, but we know so little about dementia and parkinson's still.

[rovingjack]

There's so many things we don't know about the virus yet. We do know that the virus has presented in brain samples. Sounds like it triggered a chain reaction, but we know so little about dementia and parkinson's still.

From what I've seen in some papers (which are mostly based on looking through records) the areas of exploration of the topic are in things like the possibility of crossing the blood brain barrier and the immune reaction causing the plaque bundles that are seen in the neurodegenerative disorder, the circulatory aspects of covid resulting in something like vascular dementia or vascular parkinsons. and there is some question whether those who might have a higher chance than average people of developing these diseases are having it get triggered or at least earlier than it would have otherwise. Though it is noted that at least in a few of the cases of covid onset parkinsons there is not family history or genetic markers for increased risk. Who knows, maybe it's all of this or something else entirely. Maybe it's just a fluke thing in a few cases.

But there are more than 250 million people who have recovered from covid, and if this is an outcome for even 1% of those in the next decade, the idea of 2 million + people world wide startuing to develop neurodegenerative diseases... the implication is staggering. The info I saw for the percentage of long haul covid patients with symptoms puts the number around 40%. so if we see continued infection waves for a year or more we could easily see 3-400 million 'recovered' and if the neurdegenerative disorder risk is half what it is for long haulers... tens of millions of cases.

that's some horror movie stuff right there.

but a big caveat is that there is also data that suggests a bad case of the regular flu seems to also increase the chances of Parkinsons. There were increases in tremors and dementia after the spanish flu, and some recent studies suggest that people who get a bad case of the flu are at increased risk of parkinsons. ( https://news.ubc.ca/2012/07/20/severe-flu-increases-risk-of-parkinsons-ubc-research/ ) though it's important to note that the study is based in self reporting. so correlation and misunderstanding if something was flue or something else muddy the data. The question might be more about whether any bad viral infection could be a factor in increasing neurodegenerative disorders.

[Cora Courcelle]

Of course a certain percentage of the population is going to develop these things anyway, regardless of whether they've had covid, flu or anything else.  The longer we live, the more likely we are to get some degenerative disease.  Until far more research is done into the causes of dementia etc any figures about potential future numbers are just guess work I'm afraid.

That doesn't mean that it's not a tragedy when it happens and early onset dementia is particularly cruel for everyone involved; Rockula, you and your family have my sincerest sympathy.

[SeVeNeVeS]

I've got some time booked off from work for the holidays, so going for my booster Tuesday 21st.

No side effects from the No2 jab, so fingers crossed for No3, we shall see.........

[J. Wilhelm]

Late news for all of us,no doubt, but tests results on the effectiveness of Moderna on Omicron have been disclosed. Overall the effectiveness of a double dose of Moderna is down to 30% when facing the Omicron variant. The recommendation is now for everyone to get the booster,on account that the initial controlled inflammation response of the body to the vaccine will produce w statistically wider range of antibodies, some of which might be able to protect against Omicron. In Fauci's words"It night not keep you from getting omicron but it will keep you from getting seriously ill."

The issues stated by Roving Jack regarding covid-induced dementia and accelerates Dementia and Alzheimer's onset is a very serious issue, but I'm mostly concerned about the children who basically survive Covid by simply allowing the virus to do whatever it wants. We now known Covid destroys brain cells,thus explaining the memory issues experienced by recovering patients. Infection in brain tissue by Cov SARS 2 has been confirmed. We already knew the virus could hide in nerves, and likely started to hide in the olfactory nerves, much like the shingles will hide in optical nerves. Also fat tissue has been confirmed to hide the virus, which starts explaining "Long Covid issues." Either way, there doesn't seem we can do much about that. Adults will see their lifespan shortened, but children have more to lose, in my opinion.

The good news is the most recent finding (and this is the most recent news as of yesterday) that an infection by Omicron as a "breakthrough case" seems to lead to s "super immunity." The implication being that the human body may be getting closer to universally resisting Cov SARS 2 variants.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/covid-19-infection-after-vaccine-may-create-super-immunity-study-finds/2711209/