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Author Topic: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness  (Read 30057 times)
Rockula
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« Reply #775 on: November 22, 2021, 05:39:03 pm »

Got my booster today.
Didn't feel a thing.
No soreness or bruise.
No side effects 8 hours in.
Fingers crossed.
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« Reply #776 on: November 23, 2021, 12:57:24 am »

Got my booster today.
Didn't feel a thing.
No soreness or bruise.
No side effects 8 hours in.
Fingers crossed.

That's how I reacted too... Kept waiting for the side effects, but they failed to materialise. As an aside, though, the human body is a c%@p design!
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Rockula
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« Reply #777 on: November 23, 2021, 01:09:47 pm »

Got my booster today.
Didn't feel a thing.
No soreness or bruise.
No side effects 8 hours in.
Fingers crossed.

That's how I reacted too... Kept waiting for the side effects, but they failed to materialise. As an aside, though, the human body is a c%@p design!

And the next day? Still nothing.
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LukeHogbin
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« Reply #778 on: November 24, 2021, 12:23:24 am »

Got my booster today.
Didn't feel a thing.
No soreness or bruise.
No side effects 8 hours in.
Fingers crossed.

That's how I reacted too... Kept waiting for the side effects, but they failed to materialise. As an aside, though, the human body is a c%@p design!

To be fair, whoever came up with the idea of corporeal existence was clearly on something. And that something wasn't a vaccine. Tongue
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von Corax
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« Reply #779 on: November 24, 2021, 01:15:30 am »

Got my booster today.
Didn't feel a thing.
No soreness or bruise.
No side effects 8 hours in.
Fingers crossed.

That's how I reacted too... Kept waiting for the side effects, but they failed to materialise. As an aside, though, the human body is a c%@p design!
I've been saying for 40 years that two arms was a really short-sighted design decision!
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« Reply #780 on: November 24, 2021, 03:24:12 am »

I've been saying for 40 years that two arms was a really short-sighted design decision!

I'm working on it.
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« Reply #781 on: November 24, 2021, 03:31:28 am »

I've been saying for 40 years that two arms was a really short-sighted design decision!

I'm working on it.

I'll be interested in seeing how you solve the shoulder-blade problem.
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Synistor 303
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« Reply #782 on: November 24, 2021, 11:26:22 pm »

I've been saying for 40 years that two arms was a really short-sighted design decision!

I'm working on it.


Well done, Rovingjack! The applications are mind-boggling...
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rovingjack
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« Reply #783 on: November 26, 2021, 01:26:34 am »

new strain found in south africa. waaaaaay more mutations in this one. 5 times more mutations in the 'spikes' than the delta varriant had.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127
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Prof Marvel
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« Reply #784 on: November 26, 2021, 09:59:04 am »

Still getting side effects from last nfridays booster.
Nothing serious, minor pain and fatigue and excessive sleeping.

RE the brekthrews in South Aferica, i found that South Afterica mainly got J&J vaccines ( one shot) and South Korea got a motley mix of things…

A large quantity of Astra Zeneca ( known issues)
700,000 doses of EXPIRING pfiser from Israel
1,000,000 doses of JandJ from USA
250,0000 doses of pfiser ( from where?)

450,000 expiring doses of Moderna from Romania.

Whilst I appluad the donations, i must literally question the types and sources, travelling internationally under less than ideal conditions. Having dealt with international shipment of deleicate electronics I GUARENTEE THAT THE SHIPPING NETHODS MUST BE VETTED, CHECKED AND DOUBLE CHECKED. temperaturea are critical , and not strictly maintained paperwork is … altered… g-force meters on the outside of the packages have been tampered with, leading to providing g. Force meeters on the inside as well. Esd protocall is essentially nonexistant, thus the shipping boxes
Must exceed TEMPEST PROTOCOL, which is basically emp proof.

With those experiences, I can only hold my head in my hand when someone claims they are meeting or exceeding vibration, temperatue, g-shock, and critical time to decay flying from one third workd country to another and another.

Remember, these shippers as past experts at rerouting spoiled meat …

I have also seen local handling of vaccines, and I consider the protocol “less than optimal”

So with thise caveats in mind, Mr Quality Control Engineer has to ask
- show me the raw data on who got what shots
- Which ones failed
- ALL the paperwork on the handling of the vaccines form the time of ship-out To the secondary shipout, to the reception facility, ,to the storage facilty, to the time of injection in an arm. Whith accurate time and temp markers,

Only then will we have valid raw data from which to draw possible conclusions.

Not being cyniCal,

Just beiNg thorough and factual.

I am hearing “oh i am sure.  everything was done right” in WAY too many litigous cases.
Over 85% of anectopdotsl evidence generally proves to be false based on actaul records.

So, do not despair over breakthrus in third world. Countries . Assume bad vaccine, expired vaccines, tkhawed  baccine,
Poor handling, poor prootocal, or even black market fake vaccine.

Remember the famous movie “The Third Man” based in post ww2 vienna. Pennecillian being stolen, aldurated (cut 2-1 or 3-1 ) and sold at high prices on the black market, killing people….

Learn from history!
Or be doomed to repeat it…

Prf mrvl
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« Reply #785 on: November 26, 2021, 07:07:33 pm »

Still getting side effects from last nfridays booster.
Nothing serious, minor pain and fatigue and excessive sleeping.

RE the brekthrews in South Aferica, i found that South Afterica mainly got J&J vaccines ( one shot) and South Korea got a motley mix of things…

A large quantity of Astra Zeneca ( known issues)
700,000 doses of EXPIRING pfiser from Israel
1,000,000 doses of JandJ from USA
250,0000 doses of pfiser ( from where?)

450,000 expiring doses of Moderna from Romania.

Whilst I appluad the donations, i must literally question the types and sources, travelling internationally under less than ideal conditions. Having dealt with international shipment of deleicate electronics I GUARENTEE THAT THE SHIPPING NETHODS MUST BE VETTED, CHECKED AND DOUBLE CHECKED. temperaturea are critical , and not strictly maintained paperwork is … altered… g-force meters on the outside of the packages have been tampered with, leading to providing g. Force meeters on the inside as well. Esd protocall is essentially nonexistant, thus the shipping boxes
Must exceed TEMPEST PROTOCOL, which is basically emp proof.

With those experiences, I can only hold my head in my hand when someone claims they are meeting or exceeding vibration, temperatue, g-shock, and critical time to decay flying from one third workd country to another and another.

Remember, these shippers as past experts at rerouting spoiled meat …

I have also seen local handling of vaccines, and I consider the protocol “less than optimal”

So with thise caveats in mind, Mr Quality Control Engineer has to ask
- show me the raw data on who got what shots
- Which ones failed
- ALL the paperwork on the handling of the vaccines form the time of ship-out To the secondary shipout, to the reception facility, ,to the storage facilty, to the time of injection in an arm. Whith accurate time and temp markers,

Only then will we have valid raw data from which to draw possible conclusions.

Not being cyniCal,

Just beiNg thorough and factual.

I am hearing “oh i am sure.  everything was done right” in WAY too many litigous cases.
Over 85% of anectopdotsl evidence generally proves to be false based on actaul records.

So, do not despair over breakthrus in third world. Countries . Assume bad vaccine, expired vaccines, tkhawed  baccine,
Poor handling, poor prootocal, or even black market fake vaccine.

Remember the famous movie “The Third Man” based in post ww2 vienna. Pennecillian being stolen, aldurated (cut 2-1 or 3-1 ) and sold at high prices on the black market, killing people….

Learn from history!
Or be doomed to repeat it…

Prf mrvl

The developing world's supply of COVID vaccines is nothing short of a mess. There's very little that the developed world has done, or even wants to do, to distribute vaccines. It's generally accepted fact that mass production for great swathes of the Eastern and Southern Hemispheres depend in great part from countries like India, who have large enough facilities to mass produce vaccines and generic drugs, provided that First World Pharma decides to license or release their license to third party manufacturing.

In my opinion, the best that has happened in the context of stopping covid in developing nations is the development of a pill based covid antiviral treatment (one by Johnson and Johnson, and the other by Pfizer) that promise to eliminate deaths, and can be mass produced in India and other places, but still leave people to get sick and the virus can keep mutating. And realistically that is the only real game changer for the planet right now. My complaint is that a chain is only as strong as it's weakest link, and if the chain represents the Earth, then that weakest link is the "Global South."

This pretty much says everything you need to know about humanity.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2021, 07:09:25 pm by J. Wilhelm » Logged

J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #786 on: November 26, 2021, 08:17:17 pm »

Breaking News

Travel from South Africa among other African nations to the European Union and the United States are to be restricted temporarily, in response to the new "Omicron" Covid 19 variant currently spreading in South Africa. The new variant is currently reported to be a "highly mutated" strain of SARS COV 2.

https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-states-agree-suspend-travel-southern-africa-due-new-covid-19-variant-2021-11-26/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/u-s-restrict-travel-south-africa-seven-other-nations-amid-n1284702
« Last Edit: November 26, 2021, 08:22:48 pm by J. Wilhelm » Logged
rovingjack
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« Reply #787 on: November 27, 2021, 03:58:15 am »

the concern about the south african strain isn't with vaccination this or that. It's that it's a very mutated version that appears to be outcompeteing other strains, and the amount of differences is so vast that the aspects of the vaccines used to target them by the immune system may be one of the dozens of mutations. effectively meaning vaccine redesigns may be needed, and that some of the vaccine makers are suggestion a minimum 100 day turn around for a new design targeting an escape viarriant.

But to play angels advocate here. The evidence that omicron seems to spread better than even the delta, we don't yet have any data that it's deadlier or makes one sicker than other strains. So maybe this is cow pox against small pox. Something that's nigh on benign to catch, but spreads super easy and fast, and provides immunity to people from other strains.

although pessimism returning does remind me of my case of the shingles this summer, and considering that covid seems to effect the senses of smell and taste, it worries me that like a chicken pox settles in the nervous system to emerge years later when stressors open it back up, and becomes shingles. might it be possible that one or more strains of covid takes up camp in the sensory nerves with a risk for reemerging years down the line to do some damage to those that had it?

purely paranoid speculation I admit. buuut, also a good reason to get the vaccine and never contract the virus if you can avoid it.
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Prof Marvel
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Above All Else, Do No Harm


« Reply #788 on: November 27, 2021, 01:00:24 pm »

the concern about the south african strain isn't with vaccination this or that. It's that it's a very mutated version that appears to be outcompeteing other strains, and the amount of differences is so vast....

My Good RJ

All valid points!
However, it behoves us to make empiracle engineering analysis of real data,
as opposed to Conjecture on hyperbole.

The leaders of third world countries are literally desperate for help and using any and all means to get it.

But problem solving requires accurate failure data.

I concurr, this virus is mutating extraordinarily rapidly.
Scientists , when asked "will existing vaccines work on the mutations?"
 must reply "we don't know" ... Because there is no evidence one way or the other.

Those who want attention, or to get their name in the news will present all sorts of conjecture, speculation,
Or inventions.. whatever their reasons or purposes, I don,t  know or care, but they have some sort of agenda.

But the reality of the thing is this:
We absolutely know of several variants that are deadly.
We know the vaccines work to ameliorate the symptoms for those.

We absolutely are aware of almost a dozen other variants.
We do not have any clinical data on them and thus cannot make any conclusion.
Speculation in such cases is not only useless, but can be considered detrimental as it causes needless panic.

Based on empiracle results we can surmise that several of the variants are either harmless or have at best non lethal symptoms.

Based on recent hospitalized and empiracle data cases we surmise that this latest deadly variant is damn bad and spreads faster. BUT without the data Imentioned before, we do not know for sure whether vaccines were ineffective in South Africa, or if the vaccines were "bad" for whatever reason (as previously itemized) .

There are any number of virii that will "come back" after a time, when the white coats claim "no it can't"
thus I take most white coats with a grain of salt. Shingles and polio are two.

I DO know for a fact that Fauci & Company are at it 7x24, with better data, analytics, etc than we can ever hope to be privy to. AND that the virtual team working globally on this thing is literally the best in the world.
I have this on the authority of my wife, Mrs Marvel, a retired doctor who worked in the field, met Fauci personally, knows many of the players by name and/or reputation, and studied under one of the preeminent epidemiologists in the field... One of the players in the scary "monkey chasing the researcher with a hypodermic" scenarios.

Asia already saw similar things with SARS, and fortunately this is so similar that the prior vaccine development could be leveraged. That and DNA and RNA analytics have progressed so rapidly that such work no longer takes years.

Mrs Marvel agrees that this thing is not over yet, we cannot let our guard down.
There will be vaccines, more vaccines, boosters, and masks and some distancing/shutdowns will be the norm for a while longer. Just like the 1917 Flu pandemic, and just like the Polio pandemic.

But, by being vigilant and cooperative, we CAN and Will beat this thing.

And in a few more years another one will show up.
It's called evolution.

It is even likely that the rest of the world will catch up with Asia and start wearing a mask whenever they feel sick. To stop any spread.

That's "concern and passion for others" and putting the needs of the many above ones own slight discomfort.

I call that "acting like an adult human"

Hope springs Eternal
Do not give in to the Dark Whispers
Do the best one can
Above All Else
Do No Harm

Prof Marvel
« Last Edit: November 27, 2021, 11:15:37 pm by Prof Marvel » Logged
Rockula
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« Reply #789 on: November 27, 2021, 07:17:39 pm »

Two cases of the new variant now confirmed in the UK.
The UK is 50,337 square miles.
So what are the odds that one of these two just happens to be 5 miles from me.
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Prof Marvel
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« Reply #790 on: November 27, 2021, 11:17:03 pm »

Two cases of the new variant now confirmed in the UK.
The UK is 50,337 square miles.
So what are the odds that one of these two just happens to be 5 miles from me.

Probably less than the odds of getting hit by a car, bus, or truck.
But probably better than winning the lottery.
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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« Reply #791 on: November 28, 2021, 09:49:20 am »

And so wearing of masks in public is law again in Blighty, good thing me thinks.

No doubt riots and protests will follow  Roll Eyes
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Rockula
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« Reply #792 on: November 28, 2021, 12:00:47 pm »

Two cases of the new variant now confirmed in the UK.
The UK is 50,337 square miles.
So what are the odds that one of these two just happens to be 5 miles from me.

Probably less than the odds of getting hit by a car, bus, or truck.
But probably better than winning the lottery.
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Well if there was a prize I'd have won.
And my friends went out to see New Model Army in Nottingham last night.
Guess where the other one was? Wink
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Sir Henry
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« Reply #793 on: November 28, 2021, 01:48:25 pm »

Two cases of the new variant now confirmed in the UK.
The UK is 50,337 square miles.
So what are the odds that one of these two just happens to be 5 miles from me.

Probably less than the odds of getting hit by a car, bus, or truck.
But probably better than winning the lottery.
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Well if there was a prize I'd have won.
And my friends went out to see New Model Army in Nottingham last night.
Guess where the other one was? Wink
It could have been worse, they could have gone to an Oasis tribute band: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-59446663
« Last Edit: November 30, 2021, 07:01:11 pm by Sir Henry » Logged

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Rockula
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« Reply #794 on: November 30, 2021, 05:59:11 pm »

And so, just one week after I get the Moderna booster...

Stock markets around the world have fallen after the boss of Moderna cast doubts on the effectiveness of vaccines against the new Omicron Covid variant
(from BBC News).


Oh great....
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J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #795 on: November 30, 2021, 06:40:44 pm »

And so, just one week after I get the Moderna booster...

Stock markets around the world have fallen after the boss of Moderna cast doubts on the effectiveness of vaccines against the new Omicron Covid variant
(from BBC News).


Oh great....

Do they know yet? My understanding is that it'll take a couple of weeks before determining actual effectiveness.
On the other hand,we may all depend on the antiviral pills as the only universal treatment for all of the Greek alphabet variants.
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Banfili
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« Reply #796 on: December 01, 2021, 12:09:28 am »

Well, after nearly two years of Covid in the country, a member if my extended family has been infected with the the disease - a cousin's 10 year old grandson has Covid. He also suffers from severe asthma, so double risk for severe illness. Fortunately he is not severely ill, and is isolated, with his family, at home.  I suppose, given the number of extended family members I have it was bound to happen, but always that little jerk of apprehension! His mother is vaccinated, but his younger siblings are not, so there will probably be a house full of sick kids for mum to look forward to. And, as the vaccine doesn't necessarily stop you getting Covid, they may all four of them end up with the disease!
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Prof Marvel
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« Reply #797 on: December 01, 2021, 05:15:44 am »

There is not yet enough data on Omicron to render informed opionions. All else is  "informed  guesses".

if one googles "what we know about omicron" one gets way too much, all speculation.

if one wished to follow what the WHO is reporting, the link is here

https://www.who.int/groups/technical-advisory-group-on-sars-cov-2-virus-evolution

there is unconfirmed anectdotal reports from South Africa that is "seems to be less vicious"

wash hands, wear masks, don't kiss strangers  Cheesy

yhs
prof marvel
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J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #798 on: December 01, 2021, 05:49:07 am »

The most compelling argument for extreme caution so far has been an experiment performed by scientists, precisely to answer the question of how many mutations it takes for the antibodies to fail to stop a highly mutated Sars Cov2 virus. The scientists assembled an artificial spike protein with all the known Covid mutations at the time (I don't know if it was this year or earlier, I heard it on NPR from an interview today). In the experiment they collected antibodies from both survivors of Covid and vaccinated people, whose antibodies are known to fight all the most recent Sars Cov2 variants, and then set out to mix them in petri dishes together to see if the antibodies would bind to the highly mutated spike protein. The antibodies of both survivors and vaccinated people failed 100% of the time to engage the modified spike. So this is the cause for pessimism among scientists.

But all things being equal, this is not unexpected. It's obvious that if the spike protein is very different, the Y-shaped antibodies will not lock together with the spike. The question still remains how effective are the antibodies we can make now. We just don't know until they perform the experiment.
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Prof Marvel
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« Reply #799 on: December 01, 2021, 06:48:01 am »

The most compelling argument for extreme caution so far has been an experiment performed by scientists, precisely to answer the question of how many mutations it takes for the antibodies to fail to stop a highly mutated Sars Cov2 virus. The scientists assembled an artificial spike protein with all the known Covid mutations at the time (I don't know if it was this year or earlier, I heard it on NPR from an interview today). In the experiment they collected antibodies from both survivors of Covid and vaccinated people, whose antibodies are known to fight all the most recent Sars Cov2 variants, and then set out to mix them in petri dishes together to see if the antibodies would bind to the highly mutated spike protein. The antibodies of both survivors and vaccinated people failed 100% of the time to engage the modified spike. So this is the cause for pessimism among scientists.

But all things being equal, this is not unexpected. It's obvious that if the spike protein is very different, the Y-shaped antibodies will not lock together with the spike. The question still remains how effective are the antibodies we can make now. We just don't know until they perform the experiment.


DATA!
BASED ON SCIENCE!

thank you J

prf mumbles
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