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Author Topic: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness  (Read 9360 times)
J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #475 on: August 01, 2020, 02:56:51 pm »

Dr. Anthony Fauci suggested Wednesday that Americans should consider wearing goggles or a face shield in order to prevent spreading or catching COVID-19.

ABC News: Dr. Fauci: Wear goggles or eye shields to prevent spread of COVID-19; flu vaccine a must.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/dr-fauci-wear-goggles-eye-shields-prevent-spread/story?id=72059055

Things must be bad if they're now updating the recommendations to extend cover to the eyes. From experience, I can tell you this will be hard, especially in hot weather.
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Deimos
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« Reply #476 on: August 01, 2020, 06:12:30 pm »

Really, really onerous if one wears glasses.   Sad
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« Reply #477 on: August 01, 2020, 07:09:05 pm »

Really, really onerous if one wears glasses.   Sad

If you re-read the article, it reads "We're not recommending it - yet" but the way things are going the expectation is that we may have to.

I'm working on it, though. It's easy to make a visor that accommodates glasses.
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Sorontar
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« Reply #478 on: August 02, 2020, 07:42:31 am »

The city of Melbourne is now in an official state of disaster (previously just state of emergency) and will be enforcing a 8pm-5am curfew. Residents are not allowed to go further than 5km from home unless they are going to or from work or it is health/care-related. Exercising away from home is limited to only 1 hour and must be within the 5km zone (and with no more than one other person). All weddings are cancelled, except in extreme circumstances.

This is the first time such limits have had to be enforced this year in a city in Australia (we regard it as level 4). The reasoning given by the state government is that if we can do this for at least 6 weeks, we might be able to "open up" Victoria before the end of the year.

Personally, it won't change much, except which supermarket we use. Apparently people are already rushing to stock up on supplies, even though the government says you don't need to. We put in a huge online order on Friday with one of the supermarkets to be delivered tomorrow morning, so we have to hope that the overnight stocking will mean that we will get what we need. Unfortunately, they tend to do the home deliveries from the supermarkets not warehouses, so 5am shoppers may take all the meat, bread and greens.

[UPDATE] Just found out that the larger supermarkets we sometimes use are 4.5 or 4.9km away from home. I guess we could visit them during the day but so will everyone else in the area.

Sorontar
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Banfili
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« Reply #479 on: August 02, 2020, 08:16:51 am »

The city of Melbourne is now in an official state of disaster (previously just state of emergency) and will be enforcing a 8pm-5am curfew. Residents are not allowed to go further than 5km from home unless they are going to or from work or it is health/care-related. Exercising away from home is limited to only 1 hour and must be within the 5km zone (and with no more than one other person). All weddings are cancelled, except in extreme circumstances.

This is the first time such limits have had to be enforced this year in a city in Australia (we regard it as level 4). The reasoning given by the state government is that if we can do this for at least 6 weeks, we might be able to "open up" Victoria before the end of the year.

Personally, it won't change much, except which supermarket we use. Apparently people are already rushing to stock up on supplies, even though the government says you don't need to. We put in a huge online order on Friday with one of the supermarkets to be delivered tomorrow morning, so we have to hope that the overnight stocking will mean that we will get what we need. Unfortunately, they tend to do the home deliveries from the supermarkets not warehouses, so 5am shoppers may take all the meat, bread and greens.

Sorontar

Following on that, regional Victoria returns to Stage Three on Thursday morning, 12:01am. As I hope to be home from hospital on Wednesday afternoon, and don't intend going anywhere until my follow-up visit to the ortho for suture removal etc., which possibly may be done down the road by my GP, I shall stay at home and be virtuous. Mask wearing in public areas as in supermarkets, taxis etc., is also required as of 12.01am tomorrow morning.
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J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #480 on: August 03, 2020, 08:55:10 am »

The weird Renaissance of the Post WWII Recreational Vehicles, Kiddie Pool and Patio Furniture. Move over jets and fancy hotels. So long Cayman Islands. Goodbye Alps  and other transatlantic vacations, because the Jones' are hitting Route 66 and reviving many of the long forgotten Mid-Century entertainment trends...

https://marker.medium.com/airstreams-and-inflatable-pools-inside-the-cutthroat-staycation-economy-87e40a737777

If you're old enough to recognize the names KOA and Good Sam's Club, then you know what I mean. No more Rand McNally Road Atlas, because you have Google with GPS today, but otherwise were time traveling back to the 1950s and 60s.

Quote
“Sales are off the charts,” says Robert Zagami, executive director of the New England RV Dealers Association. “I had dealers break all-time sales records in May, then they beat those numbers in June. I’ve covered this industry for 24 years, and I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s insane.”

In fact, some East Coast Airstream dealerships sold every vehicle on their lot. At least 46 million Americans plan to take an RV trip in the next year, according to a recent survey by the RV Industry Association. This year may equal the record hit in 2017, when the industry sold 504,000 new RVs. Sales have also risen for car and RV necessities, such as hitches (+42%), portable air compressors (+37%), and RV antifreeze/coolant (+31%), according to NPD Group.

It seems getting hold of an RV just got exponentially more difficult for me...  Undecided
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Miranda.T
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« Reply #481 on: August 03, 2020, 01:49:25 pm »

There are some rays of hope. New testing technology announced today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53632043?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health&link_location=live-reporting-story

Accurate and fast testing is absolutely the key to controlling the virus until a treatment or vaccine becomes available. Talking of the former:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52354520

The dexamethasone outcomes have been well publicised but I think the really exciting result are for interferon beta - so long as the initial outcomes are borne out in larger trials.

For anyone with access to UK Channel 4, there' a documentary tonight 9pm (BST) looking at progress with vaccine development, so hopefully it will contain some good news.

Yours,
Miranda.

Edit: The C4 documentary wasn't worth watching - most was just a recap on 'how did we get here?', no new information and very little on the actual science.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 02:48:55 pm by Miranda.T » Logged
J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #482 on: August 12, 2020, 09:17:34 pm »

Scientists may have an explanation as to why some people get severely ill with Covid-19 while others don't. As many lay people speculated, it does seem that having been recently infected with a human coronavirus may give people a partial protection against Sars Cov 2. The key to understanding why is not to look at the presence of antibodies, but rather look at T-Cells.

T-Cells and antibodies are fundamentally different. The antibodies mission is to stop a virus from entering the body. The T-Cell mission is to attack a cell that has been infected or isolate it. Thus T-Cells are a secondary defense mechanism. The research seems to suggest that while only a very few people (about 5% or less according to Covid-19 trials on Spain) are able to produce Sars Cov 2 antibodies and even then for just a few months, T-Cells may retain a memory of a past infection for much longer, and that infection need not be Sars Cov 2 but any other human coronavirus.

That doesn't mean immunity from the disease, however, what it means is that if you were infected with a similar human coronavirus recently, there's a good chance that your T-Cells will remember and reduce your illness from a life-threatening one to a mild case.. This may explain why some people seem to only suffer mild symptoms. It's not known with any certainty, however why some people show no symptoms. But at least we know that really bad case you suffered last year, may give you a survival chance this year!

McClatchy Washington Bureau: Why does COVID-19 strike some and not others? Fauci sees an answer in new study.
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/coronavirus/article244852012.html
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« Reply #483 on: August 13, 2020, 03:22:31 pm »

You may not know it, but your radiator heater was one of the technological innovations that resulted from the 1918 pandemic!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-05/the-curious-history-of-steam-heat-and-pandemics?utm_source=pocket-newtab
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« Reply #484 on: August 26, 2020, 08:40:30 pm »

Potential disaster Covid-19 wise vis-à-vis Hurricane Laura. I wrote above about the problematic situation with rescuing people during the pandemic when you have a natural disaster. A mostly volunteer, over 50 yrs of age workforce, and close quarter accommodation for survivors, means a surge in COVID cases.

The Hurricane has suddenly intensified from Category 1 to Category 4 at a rate never before seen. Some people are saying it could be forecast to become one in the top 5 hurricanes along with Katrina, Camille, Ike, and Rita. It will hit near the Texas Louisiana border, and cause an "unsurvivable surge" ofewater up to 30 miles inland. Naturally rain and flooding reach much further, and with this strength, you will see high winds well inland which will form multiple tornadoes. Evacuations are starting less than 24 hrs before it hits the coast.

CNBC: Laura upgraded to 'catastrophic' Category 4 hurricane, 'unsurvivable' storm surge forecast for Texas-Louisiana.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/hurricane-laura-forecast-category-4-poses-catastrophic-threat-to-louisiana-and-texas.html

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Sorontar
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« Reply #485 on: August 27, 2020, 12:26:31 am »

Seeing the list of hurricanes made me think of a certain song, so to keep this post on topic...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCeW_mrW714

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J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #486 on: August 27, 2020, 03:39:05 pm »

The good news for Texas is that winds will keep the storm traveling north-northeast, so not much weather west of Houston/Galveston. It'll mostly cross northeast Texas and the due Northvvia Arkansas, the Deep South and then parallel to the Atlantic coast. The bad news is that Eastern Louisiana will experience a 15 foot surge. That whole region is generally at sea leve and the coastal area mostly "Bayou" swampland.
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bicyclebuilder
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« Reply #487 on: September 03, 2020, 01:37:11 pm »

It's been quite a while since I've been here on BG and I was wondering what is up here lately.
As everywhere else all over the world, Covid-19 has it's grip here also.

My 2ct about it all:
At first I was a bit concerned about getting the virus.
I am a healthy (though a bit obese) person, surviving the virus would not be a problem, but still...
Stories about healthy young strong people, dying of Covid-19, made me more cautious.
As time went by, the understanding of Covid became more blurry. Is it as deadly as the plague or just a terrible cold?

Every government made it's own well guesstimated rules and regulations.
- 1 1/2 meter distancing, two armlengths, 6 feet;
- mandatory lockdowns, requested lockdowns, no lockdowns;
- different testing methods and statistic methods.
- And so on.

Some local authorities and governments have used this time to push through pre-covid issues.
For instance, our local weekly open air market has been postponed for about 2 months.
After this, the market layout was temporarily rearranged to keep the 1 1/2 meter distance in check.
This temporary rearrangement is now the norm, along with a shorter vending time.

Also, I suspect certain political groups (I'm not naming names as there are many of these groups across the world) of using Covid-19 to push their political agenda. The statistic methods are a great example for this. Some countries count every person with flu-like symptoms. You can also not compare one country with the other, because the population is never the same. Some have more old people, some have pour hygienic facilities, some have more people in one place.

Looking back at the past half year, I am getting more and more skeptic of the severity of the virus.
It is impossible that all of the countries all over the world are doing such a good job, that there aren't (relatively speaking) that many deaths.
I have not heard of a country with mass graves (like with the plague). Of course, every death is terrible, but it seems we are throwing away the baby with the bathwater.

One positive side is that the world is rethinking it's steps. Do we need to travel all over the world by airplane? Do we need to work on location or is working at home also possible? I wonder if all the environmentally positive side effects of our acting is showing in the climate changes.
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« Reply #488 on: September 04, 2020, 11:55:56 am »

Ah My Dear BB, good to see you again!

I will try to keep my reply brief, and in summary format.
Why should you trust what I am writing?
My wife is a (retired) Dr. with many credentials, and who worked under a World-Renown Epidemiologist . She (like many in the field)
was expecting something like this event,, in fact hey have been predicitng a Global Pandemic for the last decade,  they just did not know
"which" virus and "when" . We thought SARS might have been "IT" but the countires in Asia locked down and got it stopped before it went international. 
This time the response was.... well... "only pretty good" in Asia, and virtually nonexistant in the USA and Italy.


First, to protect yourself and your loved ones:

Wash your hands

Wear a GOOD mask, properly fitted

don't touch your face or nose or eyes until you've washed your hands

Avoid close contact with other people, for gods sake don't touch them. Or kiss them. Or share food or drink.
The New York cases spread like wildfire after ONE MAN came home from an  International trip, went to temple
and shook hands and hugged about 150 people. It spread like a wildfire from there!
Several other close contact mass cases occurred in churches like that.

So
wash your hands

cover your face when you cough or sneeze ( if you are wearing your mask, you already did that)

wash your hands AGAIN ( seeing a pattern?)

--------------
what we absolutely know for certain:

1) COVID19 is a corona virus. Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are known to cause illness ranging from the common cold
    to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

2) like the common cold or influenza it is spread by direct contact or by breathing in aerosoled virii - ie: breathing in the vicinity of
     a carrier who recently coughed or sneezed.    because of the virility and intensity, direct contact close contact spreads it quickly.
   
3) it can live for several hours on surfaces, but we do not know for sure how long it lives when suspended in a aerosoled vapor. we suspect
     as long as the vapor remains airborne, which can easily be 30 minutes, depending.

4) it is easily killed on skin or surfaces with soap & water, or 70% alcohol, or hydrogen peroxide, or a MILD chlorine bleach solution.

5) like all bacteria and virii is is easily filtered out of breathing air with common N95 face masks (or common 2.5 micron particle masks)
     when they are properly fitted and correctly worn. A few layers of loose weave cotton ( ie T-shirt or bandana or kerchief)  or home-made mask with no filter
     will minimize ejected virii from the wearer but offers little or no protection for the wearer.

6) Some people are more resistant than others. Some people show NO SYMPTOMS but can be carriers and infect others.
    "They" still don't know why for certain, but studies and testing continues.

7)  You said
                   "As time went by, the understanding of Covid became more blurry. Is it as deadly as the plague or just a terrible cold?"
    Actually understanding got better and more precise. Only the reporting from "Authorities" was blurry, or even downright wrong.
    Listen to and trust what Dr. Fauci actually says.  Not what "other people claim he said"
 
     yes as you have by now surmised, Covid19 is very real, can be both EXTREMELY deadly, or mild, or anywhere in between.
     This is what keeps the Medical types guessing and confused. It depends and we don't know why yet.

Cool Lockdowns worked (like they always have historically) to stop the wild-fire plague-like spread.
    the Lockdowns only gave us breathing room. Which "we" should have used to test EVERYONE and teach them all
    to wear masks and wash hands. But we did not .


Cool "social distancing" is a fabrication , an attempt to help but with little proof of effectiveness. We absolutely know that reducing contact
with other people limits or stops the spread, therefore, distance helps, but.... how much distance ? It really varies!  If a carrier with no mask coughs,
and leaves behind a cloud of virus, it will float around for some time waiting for people to walk through it and breath it in or get it in their eyes.

9)   Yes, "the authorities" are both confused AND pushing their own agendas. It has actually happened during every global pandemic.
     The COVID19 pandemic and the reactions to it are actually following the same patterns that happened during the 1917 Influenza Pandemic.
     Including Mandatory Mask Laws, People protesting wearing masks, People claiming their religion will protect them so they don't need a mask,
    and people fighting and shooting others over "wearing a mask"...

10) you wrote
"Looking back at the past half year, I am getting more and more skeptic of the severity of the virus.
It is impossible that all of the countries all over the world are doing such a good job, that there aren't (relatively speaking) that many deaths.
I have not heard of a country with mass graves (like with the plague). Of course, every death is terrible, but it seems we are throwing away the baby with the bathwater."

Iam sorry, Bicycle Builder, but I submit you have not been following the news -

Go over here and tell me there "aren't that many deaths"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

there are more than 26,000,000 cases globally
more than 870,000 deaths globally
San Merino and Peru are currently leading with total number of deaths per million

Many of Our Cities in the USA have hospitals so full they cannot take any more patients.

Some cities had to set up emergency hospitals in empty buildings, and used refridgerator trucks to hold the dead because the morgues wer full.

Mar 12, 2020 - Iran coronavirus: Satellite images show Tehran building vast Coronavirus burial pits so vast they're visible from space
    with white piles of lime, which can be used to manage decay and odor in mass graves.

Apr 10, 2020 - The Coronavirus Crisis ...the unthinkable: Mass graves on a New York City island as the city struggles in the throes of a pandemic.

Apr 30, 2020 - 'Utter disaster': Manaus fills mass graves as Covid-19 hits the Amazon. Gravediggers carry a coffin during a collective burial of people

May 28, 2020 - Blue, turquoise, and white crosses mark the dead in mass graves in Brazil, a visual reminder of the toll the novel coronavirus has had

Jul 3, 2020 - Bolivia digs mass graves as cemeteries fill with coronavirus across Bolivia, to receive a new wave of victims from COVID-19,

Jul 1, 2020 - Covid19 victims are laid to rest in NYC's public cemetery — the largest mass grave in the U.S. —

July 20th 2020 Refrigeration trucks in Matamoras, Mexico (Fox San Antonio)
TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO — The surge of COVID-19 cases is not just here in San Antonio, but also just south of our back yard. Across the border in the State of Tamaulipas, they show us how they are dealing with the spike, including the preparation of mass graves.

hope this helps
prof marvel
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bicyclebuilder
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« Reply #489 on: September 04, 2020, 03:14:53 pm »

Dear Prof Marvel,

I do trust what you are writing, but...


I have seen the statistics but I do not trust the individual counts, with all the various counting methods and political agenda's.
Let's say, for argument sake, that most country's give the correct numbers, a few give a higher number, a few give a lower number.
The total should be roughly correct.

What means that around 0,3% of the cases ends deadly.
Giving it a visual aid: A bowl of skittles has got 333 skittles, one is deadly.
Would you pick one?

0,003% of the world population has got or had Covid-19.
Same visual aid: not everyone gets a bowl of skittles, but when you get one, you have to pick a skittle.
For now, one in 33.333 gets a bowl to choose a skittle.

(Correct me if I'm wrong about the statements above)


The thing that is making me (and a lot of other people) doubt, is the news surrounding Covid-19.
To much false information, to many unlogic rules, to many obvious political games.
It is hard to tell truth from fiction and THAT is the biggest virus of today.
Also, we live in free country's.
That is great, no one is telling you what to do, but the downside is that, when some rules are applied, people will protest.
We also live in countries where privacy is one of our rights, but when we need to give up some of our privacy to get better, people will protest.
And protesting (a gathering of people, standing/walking close to each other) is where a virus can thrive.
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« Reply #490 on: September 04, 2020, 05:32:48 pm »

From Prof Marvel's figures 200 million people will die due to covid 19.
From bicyclebuilder's figures 180 million people will die due to covid 19.

I'm happy to do what I can to limit that number.
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« Reply #491 on: September 04, 2020, 08:12:43 pm »

From Prof Marvel's figures 200 million people will die due to covid 19.
From bicyclebuilder's figures 180 million people will die due to covid 19.

I'm happy to do what I can to limit that number.

Well said sir!

It's easy to talk about the statistics and the chances of dying being quite small, until a casual conversation with a friend includes the sentence "Bill's wife died after 4 days in ICU, and nothing anyone says can convince him he didn't give her covid 19, because he had to go to work".

Just because people die in traffic accidents all the time doesn't mean  one should jump in front of a bus.
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« Reply #492 on: September 05, 2020, 12:02:48 am »

Dear Prof Marvel,

I do trust what you are writing, but...




Mr. Bicycle builder.

With all due respect, as Sir Henry has pointed out, there's little difference between the death toll figures you and Prof. Marvel have quoted. I'd also like to remind you to not dig too much into politics in this forum.

I'm very opinionated about politics and will gladly debate off this forum on the subject.  But many countries of left, right, or center, politically, and both, extreme and moderate in execution, have failed to address the pandemic properly and hidden data or suppressed a proper response to the virus. Namely due to a "style of governing" and less due to traditional political orientation. And that's as far as I will opine on politics. The end result was a severe lack of coordinated leadership-this is a global phenomenon, you can see at the local level. So it's not surprising that information has been garbled "for your benefit," or rather, your politicians' benefit.

So I'd tell you that you need to trust the doctors, not the governments, on this situation. I'm not trying to be cynical about it, but if you have a doubt, there are plenty of doctors out there you can ask. There are plenty of medical journals you can read. The scientific community is still largely free-spoken at least in the Western Hemisphere. If doctors are confused it's because they're still learning about the virus as we go. Take into account that only 9 months ago we knew next to nothing about this virus or what it could do to people.

You also need not to conflate death toll rates with infection rates. About 1/5 of the people who were infected with Sars Cov 2, on average will suffer strong symptoms of Covid-19 as opposed to mild symptoms. That's 20% out of an estimated potential 70% of the net population who could get infected with Covid-19. That number is much higher, about 14 % (using those figures 0.2 x 0.7 = 0.14) than the 0.3% death rate you're quoting. That translates to 46 skittles in your Covid-19 bowl.

If I gave you a bowl of 333 skittles and told you I placed 46 skittles with cyanide, enough to send you to the hospital, and about 1/5 of those with enough cyanide to kill you, would you grab a skittle?

No? I guess I could entice you to grab one of I tell you that 86 % of those will only make you feel a bit dizzy, maybe not at all, or perhaps, depending on your luck, will make you vomit a little... Are you sure you don't want to grab one? C'mon! Don't be a party pooper! Grab one!  Roll Eyes

Also there are unknown long term medical complications from having the illness, because it destroys numerous systems in your body, and brings "friends to the party" that is invites other pathogens, by compromising your immune system.

Poor standard of care seems to make a big difference in survival rates. Yes, countries are actively hiding deathtolls - rich and poor alike, but governments can't suppress the private health industry, at least in Mexico and the US as far as I know, and you still can get good data from doctors and medical associations.

Where is your skepticism healthy? You should assume deathtolls and infection rates are much higher than told. A recent UN study in Mexico estimated the real infection rate should be much higher, as much as 30 times higher than reported by the government, maybe partly due to politics, but mostly also because not everyone is counted. Many people are now dying in their private homes because they can't find hospital beds (Mexico). I've read many stories of people dying in the taxi cab, because hospital after hospital would reject patients due to lack of space in Mexico. The international estimate for Mexico is that it has the third highest rate of infections in the world. You know who number 1 and number 2 are, right? *points to flag in my profile* The Americas are leading the world in both Covid-19 cases and deaths. The corrected estimate for cases in Mexico turned out to be proportional to the population ratio between the US and Mexico. If Mexico has roughly half the population of the US, the number of infections was close to 1/2 that of the US; the number of Mexican deaths is estimated to be proportional as well, but could be higher due to a lack of resources like the US has. .
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 02:39:48 am by J. Wilhelm » Logged
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« Reply #493 on: September 05, 2020, 12:56:57 am »

Oh. Yeah. I forgot to post this article. This is a really good article (unfortunately in Spanish, but you can use Google Translate - it's getting much better at translating Spanish). It's about the organised effort to provide a vaccine to Latin America.

British pharmaceutical Astra Zeneca partnered with Oxford University to develop a vaccine  One of the top 25 vaccines being developed. An Argentinean mogul by the name of Hugo Seagman networked with Mexican Lebanese mogul Carlos Slim to finance and produce the Astra Zeneca vaccine for the whole of Latin America. That's about 626 million vaccines.

Realizing that Argentina was a biotechnology manufacturing leader, and with the tremendous amount of of money that Carlos Slim can finance (not so long ago he beat Bill Gates as richest man in the world, and be has since fallen to one in the top 10) they partnered to manufacture and distribute the Astra Zeneca vaccine. The idea is for Astra Zeneca to manufacture the "starter" and the Argentinean lab to produce the doses,then hand them back to Astra Zeneca for distribution. The manufacture of the vaccine would be bankrolled by Carlos Slim on condition that the vaccine be made universally available below a certain price.

Hurray! Finally some people with moral fibre!

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-08-30/hugo-sigman-el-hombre-que-vacunara-a-latinoamerica-contra-la-covid-19.html


Here's an article in English

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/hugo-sigman-renaissance-man-turns-attention-to-coronavirus-vaccine.phtml
« Last Edit: September 05, 2020, 12:59:47 am by J. Wilhelm » Logged
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