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Author Topic: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness  (Read 13899 times)
Sorontar
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« Reply #375 on: July 07, 2020, 05:45:42 am »

Australia is lucky that many of our borders are very rural/desert or are geographical. Between Victoria and NSW, the Murray River is a physical border (owned by NSW, so standing on the Victoria shore and dipping your foot in the Murray without approval will soon not be allowed).

The issue for Melbourne is that we have three levels of response. For most of us, we can go to work and shops but are limited in how many people can be in the one place at a time and have to adhere to the 1.5m distancing. In the "hotspot" areas (as defined by postal zones, not muncipalities), not all businesses can open and you must stay at home unless you have a very valid reason to leave (like shopping for essentials). In the extra hot spots, the housing commission flats (tall towers of flats are not a common thing in Australia), you can't leave your flat. The problem is that 1) not everyone is following even the first rule properly, 2) the neighbouring postal zones (postcode areas) to the hospots are also getting an increased number of COVID-19 infections 3) some postal zones are large enough that some residents are wondering why they are forced to stay at home, because there are no nearby infections, 4) the people in the flats are not all happy with what services and resources are being supplied to them, especially if there have been no infections in their block of flats.

Then I look at other countries, like the US, and think - glad that what is happening there isn't happening here... but it might yet.

Sorontar
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Sorontar, Captain of 'The Aethereal Dancer'
Advisor to HM Engineers on matters aethereal, aeronautic and cosmographic
http://eyrie.sorontar.com
Banfili
Zeppelin Admiral
******
Australia Australia



« Reply #376 on: July 07, 2020, 06:27:26 am »

Australia is lucky that many of our borders are very rural/desert or are geographical. Between Victoria and NSW, the Murray River is a physical border (owned by NSW, so standing on the Victoria shore and dipping your foot in the Murray without approval will soon not be allowed).

The issue for Melbourne is that we have three levels of response. For most of us, we can go to work and shops but are limited in how many people can be in the one place at a time and have to adhere to the 1.5m distancing. In the "hotspot" areas (as defined by postal zones, not muncipalities), not all businesses can open and you must stay at home unless you have a very valid reason to leave (like shopping for essentials). In the extra hot spots, the housing commission flats (tall towers of flats are not a common thing in Australia), you can't leave your flat. The problem is that 1) not everyone is following even the first rule properly, 2) the neighbouring postal zones (postcode areas) to the hospots are also getting an increased number of COVID-19 infections 3) some postal zones are large enough that some residents are wondering why they are forced to stay at home, because there are no nearby infections, 4) the people in the flats are not all happy with what services and resources are being supplied to them, especially if there have been no infections in their block of flats.

Then I look at other countries, like the US, and think - glad that what is happening there isn't happening here... but it might yet.
Sorontar

We are lucky that there are geographical distances between most urban centres outside the major cities. I am 70 km from the ortho specialist, but he is in NSW, not Victoria! It's a cross-border dilemma!

My great nephews have been taken by their father for a few days at Bermagui on the south coast of NSW, during the school holidays. They live in Wodonga, he lives  across the river in Albury. When he brings the boys home he is either going to have to drop them on the northern, NSW side of the bridge over the Murray River, to be picked up by their mother on the southern, Victorian side, or deliver them home. If he delivers them all thew way home he will have to obtain a permit to travel back over the border to NSW, and will also have to self-isolate for 14 days!!

The Murray at my end is too bloody cold to be dipping anything in at this time of the year, but if we roll over into warmer weather ...!
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 02:36:03 am by Banfili » Logged
SeVeNeVeS
Master Tinkerer
***
England England



« Reply #377 on: July 07, 2020, 04:57:13 pm »

My local Pubs are already closing down again in their droves after, what, 3 days? due to a recent client being diagnosed positive, no doubt about it, the second wave will arrive in the UK. Be prepared people, is my advice, if it doesn't happen, at least you won't run out of supplies for a while, stock up.

Keep safe, Yours, Mr doom and gloom  Roll Eyes
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Sorontar
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Australia Australia


All ideas should have wings


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« Reply #378 on: July 08, 2020, 01:28:23 am »

The whole of Melbourne (plus a bit around the edge) is now back to the restrictions we had in April for at least 6 weeks (plus the total shutdown for the housing towers). Supermarkets are trying to convince people that supply chains are fine, so don't horde. Restaurants and cafes are back to takeaway only and limiting people standing around waiting. "Non-essential" stores are shutting after being open again for 3-4 weeks. The extra testing is giving us results similar to those in March when we initially peaked (or worse). Schools start the second half of the year on Monday but so far only the senior students are returning (and that may only be for a week).

I always love rollercoasters.... not.

Sorontar
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Mercury Wells
Rogue Ætherlord
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« Reply #379 on: July 08, 2020, 01:32:54 am »


I always love rollercoasters.... not.

Sorontar

Better than Helter Skelters though.
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The Ministry of Tea respectfully advises you to drink one cup of tea day...for that +5 Moral Fibre stat.
Banfili
Zeppelin Admiral
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Australia Australia



« Reply #380 on: July 08, 2020, 02:39:25 am »

As an addendum to the great-nephews holiday story, they arrived home latish last night - their dad had to get them back before the border closed. I think they about 18 hours (including a night's sleep) in Bermagui!! A very short holiday indeed!

I applied for and received my Border Crossing Permit this morning - good for 14 days. The wording is a bit odd though, it expects you to be staying, not returning home after your appointment - weird!
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Deimos
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aka Countess Millicent Addlewood


« Reply #381 on: July 08, 2020, 04:31:02 am »

...I applied for and received my Border Crossing Permit this morning - good for 14 days. The wording is a bit odd though, it expects you to be staying, not returning home after your appointment - weird!

You would think that the authorities in charge of permits would have "one day permits" for just such situations as yours.
You can't be the only person who needs to cross over and back just for a day. 
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Here is a test to find out if your mission in life is complete:
If you're alive, it isn't. -- Lauren Bacall

"You can tell a man's vices by his friends, his virtues by his enemies."

"Only the paranoid survive."
Banfili
Zeppelin Admiral
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Australia Australia



« Reply #382 on: July 08, 2020, 02:12:42 pm »

...I applied for and received my Border Crossing Permit this morning - good for 14 days. The wording is a bit odd though, it expects you to be staying, not returning home after your appointment - weird!

You would think that the authorities in charge of permits would have "one day permits" for just such situations as yours.
You can't be the only person who needs to cross over and back just for a day.  

It turns out that I don't need the permit at all, as I live outside the 50 km border crossing 'bubble'. All I need is proof of my medical appointment, which I have obtained from my consulting orthopaedic surgeon - will also have my confirmation text the day before, so that's it, apart from my drivers licence.

That one's going to be fun, as I will have to carry two, my old one, which needs to be renewed in the next few days before I go to town, and the paper copy of the new one which will have to have the receipt number for payment written on it. Our new licences don't need a new photo (and I haven't changed much in 10 years, anyway!), and the paper one will be replaced with photo ones as they are processed! I must dig out the scarf I was wearing when I had the old photo taken, then they will know it's really me!!

So, that's me sorted for the immediate future! A short visit - I hope they have the crossing process sorted out before Thursday next week - I don't fancy queuing for 2 hours to get across. I think I will leave home early anyway!  A friend down the road at the next town is just inside the 'bubble' and will need a class 'C' permit, as will my friend a couple of valleys over. The permits are valid for 2 weeks.

One idiot has already been arrested & will spend the night in the cells before court tomorrow!
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 10:36:20 pm by Banfili » Logged
Justin Time
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« Reply #383 on: July 08, 2020, 08:58:25 pm »

Meanwhile, these fools are my neighbors: https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2020/06/29/city-milton-rescinds-mask-mandate-after-public-outcry-no-council-support/3279384001/  Embarrassed

I can't imagine why cases are spiking  Roll Eyes

JIT
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Have you never wondered what it would be like to walk between the ticks and tocks of Time?
J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #384 on: July 08, 2020, 09:32:45 pm »

Meanwhile, these fools are my neighbors: https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2020/06/29/city-milton-rescinds-mask-mandate-after-public-outcry-no-council-support/3279384001/  Embarrassed

I can't imagine why cases are spiking  Roll Eyes

JIT

"But democracy is at risk from those trying to keep me alive. I can't let that happen! Democracy, democracy! Those damn totalitarian doctors and nurses!"

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Justin Time
Officer
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« Reply #385 on: July 08, 2020, 09:56:20 pm »

"But democracy is at risk from those trying to keep me alive. I can't let that happen! Democracy, democracy! Those damn totalitarian doctors and nurses!"

If only Dumb-ocracy and free-dumb were at risk exclusively...
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Banfili
Zeppelin Admiral
******
Australia Australia



« Reply #386 on: July 08, 2020, 10:45:50 pm »

Meanwhile, these fools are my neighbors: https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2020/06/29/city-milton-rescinds-mask-mandate-after-public-outcry-no-council-support/3279384001/  Embarrassed

I can't imagine why cases are spiking  Roll Eyes

JIT

"But democracy is at risk from those trying to keep me alive. I can't let that happen! Democracy, democracy! Those damn totalitarian doctors and nurses!"

Guess the mayor will be out of a job next election.
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Sorontar
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Australia Australia


All ideas should have wings


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« Reply #387 on: July 09, 2020, 07:05:15 am »

It might be a Catch-22 situation. If there is no population, no one will vote for the mayor. If there is population, no one will vote for the mayor.
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Banfili
Zeppelin Admiral
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Australia Australia



« Reply #388 on: July 09, 2020, 07:19:41 am »

It might be a Catch-22 situation. If there is no population, no one will vote for the mayor. If there is population, no one will vote for the mayor.

There is that!
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J. Wilhelm
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« Reply #389 on: July 09, 2020, 08:33:49 am »

Meanwhile, these fools are my neighbors: https://www.pnj.com/story/news/2020/06/29/city-milton-rescinds-mask-mandate-after-public-outcry-no-council-support/3279384001/  Embarrassed

I can't imagine why cases are spiking  Roll Eyes

JIT

"But democracy is at risk from those trying to keep me alive. I can't let that happen! Democracy, democracy! Those damn totalitarian doctors and nurses!"

Guess the mayor will be out of a job next election.


I wouldn't bet on that! Unfortunately you can't say that in this decade. At every turn of events I get surprised! In the end politicians reflect their constituency. My suggestion is let nature take its course and try to away from the place if you can. That's a contingency I've considered as of late.
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Prof Marvel
Zeppelin Captain
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Western Sahara Western Sahara


too depressed for words


« Reply #390 on: July 10, 2020, 03:38:23 am »

We is all Muricans Dammit!
We gots our rights to Guns and Moonshine Freedom and you cants tell us'n  what ta do!
We gots Walmart camo Tshirt You-Ni-Forms and thats proof!
Our fat heads and our rights'll protect us from the Covid!
And from Hurricanes!
We-all will shoot the Covid AND the Hurricanes!
That'l larn em.

Interestingly, SARS/ Covid and/or the new mutations coming out happily reproduce like wildfire and infect and reinfect at an amazing rate. It will happily infect and potentially kill anybody stupid enough to expose themselves.

Further, there is some recent evidence that once Covid is contracted , if the patient recovers, immunity MIGHT NOT LAST.

Darwin Awards will be dispensed posthumorously to the appropriate Marching Morons.

A HUGE problem is the lack of trust in ANYTHING coming out of federal, state, and local govts, and
the medical experts that we actually need to trust. This is the direct result lack of leadership, technical waffling, and of over twenty years of Washington politics from ALL sides, that have led even rational folks to question  ANY statement coming from ANY politician. FACT CHECKING IS AN ABSOLUTE REQUIREMENT THESE DAYS.

Not to mention the rampant conspiracy theories.

Regarding "rights" .... In actual factuality , in the U.S.A., all that is required to force compliance is a
declaration of a State of Emergency and ALL rights can be rescinded. At which point the marching morons can be rounded up and placed in Covid Camps, just like the govt did to the American Citizens of Japanese ancestry during WW2. Sure, they can “resist with their dying breath” ... but that didn’t work out at all for the psycho group known as “The Branch Davidians” in Waco Texas. And if a State of Emergency is declared, the generals will have no patience and just roll em down with a tank or two.


BTW in breaking news in Germany, exactly that was done at the end of June to entire apartment block
of migrant workers. They were all working (at low wages) in a meat-packing plant, and a large percentage tested positive.... ,

so the German Police locked down the entire apartment complex for around 2 weeks.
The apartment complex is used by the Toennies meat company to house workers at a “tower block” in Goettingen .

Of course, a riot ensued.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-quarantined-housing-block-residents-attack-police/a-53885044
https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/06/602362/germany-stunned-riot-erupts-quarantined-apartment

In the meantime I am strictly following my prior NBC ( Nuclear, Biological, Chemical ) training,
And will continue to wear my N-95 mask, eye protection, gloves, and decontaminate myself before re-entering  the house. It's simple, really.

- Wear a proper mask and eye protection,
- wash your hands often,
- avoid close contact with people.

I personally follow more strict measures and decontaminate myself with a mist of 70% alcohol or 3% peroxide or diluted solution of chlorine bleach and water. It is easily done using a cheap  dolar store spray bottle!

Oh, and I am watching NHK TV via the web for Asian news ( monitoring any further spread of covid)  and the TERRIBLE FLOODING in Japan and China,.....

and on a positive note the fascinating hints of positive support and change coming from
Japanese designers, inventors, Zen and Budhist priests, and regular folks!

I highly recommend NHK ( Japan Public TV ) to everyone for a different perspective. They can be found streaming on the web and via a ROKU channel.


stay safe, stay sane
prof marvel
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 10:45:31 pm by Prof Marvel » Logged

The world is in Hell and I am too depressed for words
J. Wilhelm
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Sentisne fortunatum punkus? Veni. Diem meum comple


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« Reply #391 on: July 10, 2020, 11:29:28 pm »

Riots and constitutional law aside I have news from Texas, and it's not good. I need to restock and rotate my food supply.

The latest is a warning from Governor Abbot that if people don't comply with the mask rule, the next step is a second shutdown. He warns things are not going well at all and a new shutdown is imminent. We're not slowing the rate of infection. Naturally he is now trying to control the people we allowed to go back out.

The full article this morning
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/10/greg-abbott-shutdown-texas-mask-order/


This is very serious and I appreciate the warning and his sense of urgency, but can't help feeling that giving the choice to counties and cities to "opt out" of the rule, is going to be the worst blunder he's done since he decided to open bars and restaurant dining areas. Now local governments are flouting his pleas, not understanding that the virus follows the path of least resistance. If Vail (the ski resort town) could become the epicenter of the virus in Colorado there's no reason why "Paris, Texas" (yes there's a little town called Paris) can't be the same. Now, he is a former judge, and as such he's better equipped to know what the law allows and how much control he can enforce. So things are going to get interesting in the next few days. The public are just being very stupid, and proving that if you "give them a little bit, they take the whole lot."

This is no longer about politics and more about the population ignoring authorities' pleas for good behavior. I knew we were a rebel bunch, but this is ridiculous.



« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 11:34:12 pm by J. Wilhelm » Logged
Prof Marvel
Zeppelin Captain
*****
Western Sahara Western Sahara


too depressed for words


« Reply #392 on: July 11, 2020, 12:03:25 am »

Riots and constitutional law aside I have news from Texas, and it's not good. I need to restock and rotate my food supply.

Most important, yes.
And a can of wasp spray, and a hickory baseball bat.


Quote
The latest is a warning from Governor Abbot .... Now, he is a former judge, and as such he's better equipped to know what the law allows and how much control he can enforce. .....

Umm yes. Most importantly, he knows how little he can do without major riots demonstartions...
He also was so stoopid as to reopen too early...

Maybe California and Crazy Mom might work?
Could you possibly  “live in the basement ”?
Yhs
Prof marvel
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rovingjack
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« Reply #393 on: July 11, 2020, 03:55:48 am »

good thing we have all this warm weather huh, it's sure to clear up this epidemic in a jiffy. It must be so, cuz I read it on the interwebs from a world leader.

I've seriously hit a wall with a number of my social circle. "it's all a social conditioning experiment, keep people separated to facilitate facial recognition software, determining who can be manipulated, making everyone afraid of everyone else, it's all basic divided and conquer tactics. If you want to bury your head in the sand and pretend the government doesn't want us to be helpless servants, I'm sorry for you. 1984 is coming true right in front of our eyes."

I literally cannot keep giving me energy to the Sisyphean task of dealing with these lunatics, every day.
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When an explosion explodes hard enough, the dust wakes up and thinks about itself.
Deimos
Snr. Officer
****
United States United States


aka Countess Millicent Addlewood


« Reply #394 on: July 11, 2020, 04:51:15 am »

Our numbers in AZ are down, 'way down:
 from 5272 on 29 June to 1817 on 6 July (numbers from more recent dates have not been fully tallied)

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J. Wilhelm
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Sentisne fortunatum punkus? Veni. Diem meum comple


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« Reply #395 on: July 11, 2020, 07:45:19 am »

Riots and constitutional law aside I have news from Texas, and it's not good. I need to restock and rotate my food supply.

Most important, yes.
And a can of wasp spray, and a hickory baseball bat.


Quote
The latest is a warning from Governor Abbot .... Now, he is a former judge, and as such he's better equipped to know what the law allows and how much control he can enforce. .....

Umm yes. Most importantly, he knows how little he can do without major riots demonstartions...
He also was so stoopid as to reopen too early...

Maybe California and Crazy Mom might work?
Could you possibly  “live in the basement ”?
Yhs
Prof marvel

California is NOT in good shape. Basically people there are tired to be in confinement and equally belligerent. Their excuses may be different, but behavior is the same. California will not be a good choice unless I see numbers stabilize. What could be an advantage is how well the authorities can convince people to comply in the long run. When people see their neighbor being hauled away in a bodybag and his widow wailing on the curb, you might see a change of attitude.

I have discussed a potential move with mother, but it would require she moves out as well, as there's no space on the room she rents. Basically I need an income and a new rental situation. The difficulty in living with her is that she's not used to it. She didn't raise me, my grandparents did, precisely because of her difficult nature, plus she was only 18 when I was born. Trust me when I say that getting along with her is very difficult.

California does have great RV weather, though. That makes conditions better for an improvised state of residence. But right now it doesn't look like it is coming down, they just had a huge spike like Texas.

Our numbers in AZ are down, 'way down:
 from 5272 on 29 June to 1817 on 6 July (numbers from more recent dates have not been fully tallied)



I sincerely hope so. EDIT: OK I see what you mean - I just saw the dashboard for daily new cases. That is a dramatic and sudden downturn. What was the tactic taken to lead to that sharp downturn?


When I saw the numbers earlier today it was just the deaths statistic. But deaths always trail behind daily. What I've heard in the last week is that Texas and California and Florida are the worst, followed by Arizona. I really want Gov. Abbot to reign this situation in...

From CNBC 9 hours ago....
CNBC: Coronavirus deaths tick up in Florida, Texas, California, Arizona as states grapple with growing outbreaks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-deaths-tick-up-in-florida-texas-california-arizona.html
Daily deaths per state.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 08:29:08 am by J. Wilhelm » Logged
Sorontar
Zeppelin Admiral
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Australia Australia


All ideas should have wings


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« Reply #396 on: July 11, 2020, 08:08:08 am »

Our numbers in AZ are down, 'way down:
 from 5272 on 29 June to 1817 on 6 July (numbers from more recent dates have not been fully tallied)

I would be very worried if the health authorities can't give you daily numbers.
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J. Wilhelm
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Immortal
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Sentisne fortunatum punkus? Veni. Diem meum comple


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« Reply #397 on: July 11, 2020, 08:27:46 am »

Our numbers in AZ are down, 'way down:
 from 5272 on 29 June to 1817 on 6 July (numbers from more recent dates have not been fully tallied)

I would be very worried if the health authorities can't give you daily numbers.

They quote a 4-7 day delay foraa complete tally of confirmed cases on the Arizona dashboard... But they do report daily.
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Sorontar
Zeppelin Admiral
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Australia Australia


All ideas should have wings


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« Reply #398 on: July 11, 2020, 10:06:01 am »

Victoria is currently expecting test results to take up to 2 days, but we get daily numbers on how many new infections there are, and whether they have been linked to known clusters, international travellers under quarantine in hotels or are (so far) unknown community transmissions. They also update the previous records as they contact trace. Because most Aussie states and territory have very low infection numbers (single digit per day or even week), the other states are helping Victoria do the contact tracing of the new infections (216 today!).

What sort of information are each of you getting from authorities? Is there one source or do the press have to gather the numbers from multiple sources?

Sorontar
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Banfili
Zeppelin Admiral
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Australia Australia



« Reply #399 on: July 11, 2020, 12:14:46 pm »

I was watching "Ambulance UK" tonight, from Liverpool, on St Patrick's Day 2020 weekend - camera crew follows different crews in their ambulances, and so on. Couple of youngish, cheeky chaps and chapesses, the usual mix.

At the end of the show they had the black screen, white message - the ambos in the programme had later been treating Covid-19 patients - two of the young chaps had died after catching the plague.

It just seemed so sad.
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