Author Topic: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness  (Read 37166 times)

Sir Henry

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #275 on: April 12, 2020, 05:25:26 pm »
The CDC is recommending that anyone who dies AND has been exposed to the virus be declared a victim of it.
That can be quite a stretch. If that isn't done normally why should it be done now?

There was an actual case of an 86 year old woman who was admitted for a stroke. She later died.
It had been determined that she was exposed to the virus, so the hospital listed the cause of death as COVID-19, not the stroke.
Are terminal cancer patients who have been exposed to the virus and die going to be recorded as cancer victims or COVID 19 victims?  'Way too easy to skew the data.    
That is the thinking behind Big Data. With large enough numbers any errors, both overreported or underreported will tend to balance out, thus giving as accurate a reckoning as possible. And with 6 billion (or is it 7 now?) that should be enough to give a reasonably accurate idea of the potency of the beast.
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #276 on: April 12, 2020, 06:37:44 pm »
In better news, an Israeli team come up with an open source hack for making a respirator out of a snow blower motor, among other relatively inexpensive components for a total cost of $500 to $1000

Quartz: Israeli team creates open-source hack for making Covid-19 ventilators.
https://qz.com/1836451/israeli-team-creates-open-source-hack-for-making-covid-19-ventilators/?utm_source=google-news

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #277 on: April 12, 2020, 10:21:44 pm »
The CDC is recommending that anyone who dies AND has been exposed to the virus be declared a victim of it.
That can be quite a stretch. If that isn't done normally why should it be done now?

There was an actual case of an 86 year old woman who was admitted for a stroke. She later died.
It had been determined that she was exposed to the virus, so the hospital listed the cause of death as COVID-19, not the stroke.
Are terminal cancer patients who have been exposed to the virus and die going to be recorded as cancer victims or COVID 19 victims?  'Way too easy to skew the data.    

Because the US does not have the resources to test anywhere enough people. If health staff cannot be tested they won’t test a recent death displaying typical symptoms of COVID 19 in a patient over 80 or with an underlying condition.

Death rates for all major causes of death are well known and can be accounted for, but if you are having an unaccounted for spike in deaths then it is likely attributable to COVID 19, as the only new factor. A NY first response was indicating that they were attending on 10 times the normal rate of people dying in their home, and as these are not deaths in hospital, no testing at all. If anything there is significant undercounting due to the paucity of testing.

Set against this is a likely decrease in asthma, emphysema etc related deaths caused by the improving air quality due to far less traffic and industry, which will offset the spike of COVID 19 deaths partially. As such conditions are part of the set of underlying conditions making people vulnerable to COVID 19, the social distancing is probably giving some people with these conditions a fighting chance upon contracting it, which they didn’t have before. Yay for them. As a diabetic the improving air quality doesn’t help my underlying condition, only better food an medication control can do that,

Social distancing policies will also mitigate against seasonal flu, it is going to reduce cases of that as well, reducing the death rate for that as well again to be set against the COVI 19 losses.
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #278 on: April 12, 2020, 10:38:03 pm »
the recording deaths of those exposed as caused by the virus is I'd wager in part in response to the fact that they do not have enough tests, and have not been testing people when it was deemed medically unnecesary, but also not counting people who have not had a possative test in any of the numbers. Basically you could have early to mid levels of kidney failure, but when the virus causes your potassium levels to spike it's the kidney failure that kills you, and if you hadn't had symptoms before that and were not tested, you're are usually not counted as a casualty of Corona virus.

One top of that, somebody who comes in in the worst case and needs ventilators and presents all signs of the disease... they are less likely to waste a test (because there simply are not enough of them here) to confirm it. If the patient dies and again there was no confirmation through testing there are indicators that several places are not confirming the as covid deaths.

People who have mild symptoms are often sent home so as to not take up beds, but reports indicate that in many cases, things went from mild to mortal peril in an hour, so some people are dieing at home without having a confirmed positive. I mean frankly at this point there are way more people who have it than we have the ability to test. Testing labs are getting backed up and people everywhere are just guessing at numbers.

and in other new, there are people who tested positive, seemed to have recovered, tested negative and then later have tested positive again and developed symptoms again. They Have no idea if this is reactivation, reinfection or residual symptoms flairing with testing showing dead virus remaining in the blood.



also this sounds very much like some of my experience, described by an oxford professor (machine learning)

https://mobile.twitter.com/maosbot/status/1249383809545637889
Quote
We're on day 31 of our mild COVID-19-like symptoms (high fever, coughs, fatigue, shortness of breath, loss of taste etc.). Here are some notes on our family's (N=4) illness, in case of use to others. (1/7)
We thought we were all well on the mend on day 13. Then it came back. The encore included old symptoms (high fever) and new ones (loss of taste). We had all been carefully self-isolating, so I think it's unlikely to have been a new bug. (2/7)
The disease's unpredictable progression gets to you. Even over the course of a day, symptoms seemingly randomly wax and wane. It's hard not having confidence in when you'll be out of the woods. (3/7)
Fatigue seems like an innocuous symptom. But fatigue is a diminishment of the self. Everything that is you, there is less of. (4/7)
**Rest.** It's very easy to do too much, and thereby set back your recovery. Lying down helps a lot. I have been developing new strategies for looking after kids while lying down. (5/7)
Food can be surprisingly disgusting if you can't taste anything. But if you don't eat enough, or drink enough, symptoms can worsen quickly. It's very important to eat and drink enough. (6/7)
I hope that you all stay virus-free, so that the notes above remain irrelevant to you: good health to you all!
(7/7)
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #279 on: April 13, 2020, 01:04:02 am »
The thought occurs to me that the virus may be mutating much faster than scientists realize. Could it be re-infection with a mutated version of the same virus? I heard that Chinese scientists identified a second slightly less lethal strain of the same virus found outside of China in Europe, and that was weeks ago.

At the rate this virus moves, this is a valid concern. What takes years to happen to a normal virus, may only take months or even weeks for this one.

Actually never mind, the hypothesis I wrote above actually underestimates reality. The virus does in fact mutate every single time it infects a new patient. So much so that you can compare genetic sequences (RNA) and actually identify where the virus has traveled.

Scientists studied at least three strains which belong to the period December 2019 - March 2020.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm

You can actually track the evolution of SARS Cov 2 in real time through this online project called  Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) which is less than 3 years old.

https://www.gisaid.org/



« Last Edit: April 13, 2020, 01:46:59 am by J. Wilhelm »

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #280 on: April 13, 2020, 08:01:58 am »
We WILL beat this.

« Last Edit: April 13, 2020, 09:12:46 am by SeVeNeVeS »

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #281 on: April 14, 2020, 01:45:34 pm »
We WILL beat this.






This needs to posted on FB so it can go viral. People need hope!
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #282 on: April 14, 2020, 05:19:48 pm »
We WILL beat this.






This needs to posted on FB so it can go viral. People need hope!

 I've always preferred the 2 finger salute myself . The picture does tell a 1000 words though

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #283 on: April 14, 2020, 10:32:34 pm »
All those years of OCD from age 13 through age 34 were nothing but rehearsal for today.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #284 on: April 14, 2020, 10:50:40 pm »
All those years of OCD from age 13 through age 34 were nothing but rehearsal for today.

My daughter tells me I have been practicing social distancing all my life - finally paying off...

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #285 on: April 14, 2020, 10:55:30 pm »
All those years of OCD from age 13 through age 34 were nothing but rehearsal for today.

My daughter tells me I have been practicing social distancing all my life - finally paying off...

Aspergers helps! Social distancing = normality for life!

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #286 on: April 15, 2020, 12:50:31 am »
All those years of OCD from age 13 through age 34 were nothing but rehearsal for today.

My daughter tells me I have been practicing social distancing all my life - finally paying off...

Aspergers helps! Social distancing = normality for life!

Heck, just being an introvert "pays off".   ;D   
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #287 on: April 15, 2020, 01:16:46 am »
https://www.theage.com.au/national/copper-coated-doorknobs-to-kill-covid-it-makes-sense-say-scientists-20200414-p54jqi.html

"Copper has broad anti-microbial properties and has already been installed in some hospitals around the world to stop the spread of antibiotic-resistant superbugs. There is preliminary evidence that copper can destroy SARS-CoV-2 as well.

“Copper is known to be anti-microbial. It’s already used as an anti-microbial coating in medical devices,” said Dr Bart Eijkelkamp, head of a lab at Flinders University that studies copper’s properties.
...
One small study published in March in the New England Journal of Medicine tested the virus on various surfaces and found it quickly became unstable on copper.

SPEE3D, the company which has been 3D-printing copper door furniture, commissioned its own study from a Melbourne-based virus lab which showed copper reduced viral levels by 96 per cent within two hours.
...
One 2013 multi-hospital randomised controlled trial tested copper bed rails, tables and chair arms in hospital rooms. The coverings cut the risk of acquiring a hospital-acquired infection by more than half.
Stainless steel, on the other hand, seems to be a good harbour for SARS-CoV-2. In the New England Journal of Medicine trial, the virus was still detectable after 72 hours.
...
Copper appears to have several unique properties that allow it to kill viruses. When a bacterium or virus lands on copper, electrically charged particles known as ions jump from the surface into the bacterium, punching holes in it and killing it.

Copper also appears to have a range of other negative effects on bacteria, including damaging its DNA."

It is a pity that copper is so expensive that criminals are stealing it from the railway system. We had to change all our household plumbing from galvanised iron to copper pipes. Not cheap!

It is nice to read that simple measures help though.

Sorontar


« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 01:21:45 am by Sorontar »
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #288 on: April 15, 2020, 01:51:50 am »
The thought occurs to me that the virus may be mutating much faster than scientists realize. Could it be re-infection with a mutated version of the same virus? I heard that Chinese scientists identified a second slightly less lethal strain of the same virus found outside of China in Europe, and that was weeks ago.

At the rate this virus moves, this is a valid concern. What takes years to happen to a normal virus, may only take months or even weeks for this one.

Actually never mind, the hypothesis I wrote above actually underestimates reality. The virus does in fact mutate every single time it infects a new patient. So much so that you can compare genetic sequences (RNA) and actually identify where the virus has traveled.

Scientists studied at least three strains which belong to the period December 2019 - March 2020.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm

You can actually track the evolution of SARS Cov 2 in real time through this online project called  Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) which is less than 3 years old.

https://www.gisaid.org/






Oddly enough, just today I was just discussing the possibility of multiple strains with varying risks in the current infections.  It's the only thing that would explain why so many people are reporting SO MANY different symptoms during infection. It makes sense when you think about it...

NOTE - I'M NOT QUALIFIED OR HAVE ANY SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE CURRENT SARS-CoV-2 VIRUS. I'M PURELY SPECULATING!

From what I've seen (in the UK at least) it seems as though there are roughly three main strains (two certainly, a third is pure guesswork) , the most prevalent one seems to be the strain with the least complications - i.e those infected who report weak to no symptoms, and this seems to be the fastest spreading version. Probably a LOT more people have / are infected with this as they will not be detected or have been tested, so will not appear in the official figures. lack of symptoms allows this to spread faster due to carelessness and public exposure. This strain seems to have the shortest incubation period and also the shortest period of infection - typically reported as 5 to 7 days. Not all assumed infections will be SARS-CoV-2, some are likely to be common cold or other common viral infections around at this time of year.

The second most common is the strain that causes more moderate to severe symptoms, such as the reports of "lungs feeling like you inhaled broken glass" etc. This version also seems to take longer than the often quoted "seven days", and I know from experience that whatever I had in December / January took more than two weeks to pass (though I still have some residual effects). This strain is the one that is causing most of the reported infections as it is symptomatic enough to be easily detected and tested for. Depending on an individuals health status, this strain can lead to serious complications and death. Most people infected with this will likely require some degree of medical intervention at some point.

The possible third strain - and I have no proof it exists, just based on observation of published figures - seems to be the strain that is the most severe. This one has a low infection rate and slow spreading mainly due to the symptoms being so severe that the infected are quickly isolated and transferred to hospital for treatment. This has the effect of inhibiting the virus from spreading faster. Fast killing viruses rarely lead to pandemic infection as they tend to kill the host too quickly, preventing new infections or limiting the spread.

Now a lot of this is highly dependant on an individuals' immune response and general health. This is why most early deaths were associated with "underlying problems" such as weak immune systems, heart disease and other serious health issues.


I may be completely wrong, but multiple strains does seem to explain the differing reports of severity during infection.  :-\
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Banfili

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #289 on: April 15, 2020, 03:47:13 am »
https://www.theage.com.au/national/copper-coated-doorknobs-to-kill-covid-it-makes-sense-say-scientists-20200414-p54jqi.html

"Copper has broad anti-microbial properties and has already been installed in some hospitals around the world to stop the spread of antibiotic-resistant superbugs. There is preliminary evidence that copper can destroy SARS-CoV-2 as well.

“Copper is known to be anti-microbial. It’s already used as an anti-microbial coating in medical devices,” said Dr Bart Eijkelkamp, head of a lab at Flinders University that studies copper’s properties.
...
One small study published in March in the New England Journal of Medicine tested the virus on various surfaces and found it quickly became unstable on copper.

SPEE3D, the company which has been 3D-printing copper door furniture, commissioned its own study from a Melbourne-based virus lab which showed copper reduced viral levels by 96 per cent within two hours.
...
One 2013 multi-hospital randomised controlled trial tested copper bed rails, tables and chair arms in hospital rooms. The coverings cut the risk of acquiring a hospital-acquired infection by more than half.
Stainless steel, on the other hand, seems to be a good harbour for SARS-CoV-2. In the New England Journal of Medicine trial, the virus was still detectable after 72 hours.
...
Copper appears to have several unique properties that allow it to kill viruses. When a bacterium or virus lands on copper, electrically charged particles known as ions jump from the surface into the bacterium, punching holes in it and killing it.

Copper also appears to have a range of other negative effects on bacteria, including damaging its DNA."

It is a pity that copper is so expensive that criminals are stealing it from the railway system. We had to change all our household plumbing from galvanised iron to copper pipes. Not cheap!

It is nice to read that simple measures help though.

Sorontar

Silver is also effective against infection - one reason nurses used to have silver buckles on their belts! Colloidal silver in solution can be used as a topical anti-bacterial, while bandaids with colloidal silver as a solid are really good when applied to minor, infected wounds.
I've used it myself on occasion.

However, it's only useful against secondary infection brought about by viruses - it doesn't work on viral infections. Some people take it internally, which can have very toxic side-effects, so its best use is external application.

von Corax

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #290 on: April 15, 2020, 04:06:03 am »
...Colloidal silver in solution can be used as a topical anti-bacterial [...] Some people take it internally, which can have very toxic side-effects, so its best use is external application.
When taken internally it also permanently turns you blue.
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #291 on: April 15, 2020, 05:41:46 am »
...Colloidal silver in solution can be used as a topical anti-bacterial [...] Some people take it internally, which can have very toxic side-effects, so its best use is external application.
When taken internally it also permanently turns you blue.

Only in mega doses.

here's some interesting info about silver ions as medicine.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409140021.htm

as far as copper used on surfaces, you can copper plate things, and it works for copper alloys too. sooo brass goggles and such.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #292 on: April 15, 2020, 05:42:47 am »
...Colloidal silver in solution can be used as a topical anti-bacterial [...] Some people take it internally, which can have very toxic side-effects, so its best use is external application.
When taken internally it also permanently turns you blue.

There is that to it, as well! Unless you want to be blue, that is!!

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #293 on: April 15, 2020, 05:50:17 am »
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6264685/

looks like it can be effective on some viral illnesses as well.

back when my digestive system wouldn't tolerate medications I had used some ingested silver solutions, I am no more blue than I was before I used it. There are many people who drink a silver solution on the regular without ill effect the two or so cases that are touted as proof it will turn you blue are usually the same cases over and over and if memory serves me the guy was drinking gallons of the stuff per day made himself with impure water which creates silver salts that obsorb better into tissues.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #294 on: April 15, 2020, 07:42:01 am »
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6264685/

looks like it can be effective on some viral illnesses as well.

back when my digestive system wouldn't tolerate medications I had used some ingested silver solutions, I am no more blue than I was before I used it. There are many people who drink a silver solution on the regular without ill effect the two or so cases that are touted as proof it will turn you blue are usually the same cases over and over and if memory serves me the guy was drinking gallons of the stuff per day made himself with impure water which creates silver salts that obsorb better into tissues.
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #295 on: April 15, 2020, 04:08:24 pm »
You guys seem to be talking about the Oligodynamic Effect. While I believe copper does work as a self sanitizing surface, it is impractical due to the strong oxidation it presents with moisture, oils and low level sweat acids from human hands.

The Oligodynamic effect is also known to happen on brass fittings, actually, like door pulls and knobs which once were used at hospitals where the phenomenon was noticed. I imagine Bronze would present the same effect and those two alloys are far more common and readily available than say a copper door knob.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oligodynamic_effect

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #296 on: April 15, 2020, 04:40:00 pm »
This made me laugh.....


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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #297 on: April 15, 2020, 09:47:34 pm »
Gawd, that is funny

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #298 on: April 16, 2020, 02:00:29 am »
That got a laugh!

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #299 on: April 16, 2020, 08:47:42 am »
I am so sad I'm actually considering trying this later ......
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