Author Topic: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness  (Read 34510 times)

Athanor

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #125 on: March 20, 2020, 09:30:59 pm »
My wife Myranda and I are stranded here in the tiny village of La Manzanilla, Jalisco, (not to be confused with Manzanillo, a biggish city a bit to the south in the neighbouring state of Colima) on the Pacific coast of Mexico; we can't go home to Kelowna, BC, Canada as our house there is rented out until 15th April. Our Westjet flight out of Manzanillo on the 16th has been cancelled, but (hopefully) we've re-booked on a redeye flight via Mexico City and Vancouver on May 1st-2nd, courtesy of Aeromexico. Keeping all fingers, toes and eyes crossed . . . .

The Mexican government is currently admitting to 26 COVID cases, but there's a shortage of testing kits so the real total is probably considerably more. Here in La Manzanilla the stores are pretty well stocked and there doesn't seem to be much in the way of panic buying among the local Gringos, but our weekly market has been cancelled, schools are closed, and public gatherings are restricted. So far I've only seen one local resident wearing a mask, and "the natives are (still) friendly" - at the moment. I suppose there are worse places to be stranded . . . .

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« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 09:34:01 pm by Athanor »
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J. Wilhelm

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #126 on: March 20, 2020, 10:45:34 pm »
I'm very concerned about Mexico. My impression is that the government has been very slow and more interested in their political cruzade for Mexico's "4th Transformation" (I won't discuss politics, but it's basically the same political garbage that infected the world all over).

We'll see if coastal warm weather helps with the virus contagion, but warm weather in the Antipodes suggests otherwise. The cool Mexico City weather at 7000kft already is extremely bad for most respiratory diseases, and if what's happening in Colorado is any indication, Mexico City is a prime breeding ground for the virus. My own high-school buddy, a college professor in Mexico City is very dismissive about it, instead complaining about the lost hotel fees for a trip to Italy his family wanted to take this summer.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #127 on: March 20, 2020, 11:40:13 pm »
One of my cousins arrived home from Thailand a bit over two weeks ago (into self-isolation immediately), but his wife and 6 year old daughter are stuck in Bangkok - now news about getting them home as yet. He can't go there, just has to wait and see what happens. he is High Vulnerability himself, so the less exposure to anything the better!

Another cousin's (same side of the family) sister-in-law is stuck on a cruise ship off Phuket - originally bound for London, it is now sitting there waiting for other boats to come and pick up their nationals, and then will be heading to Fremantle in Western Australia! While not having her trip to London, she now has the opportunity of a cruise down the Western Australian coast!

A friend's daughter is in Canada with her Canadian boyfriend, and was due to fly home in a few weeks to renew her visa - that won't be happening now, so soon, she will be an illegal in Canada!! What an adventure!

Covid-19 is touching just about everyone one way or another and the degrees of separation are getting smaller and smaller!




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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #128 on: March 20, 2020, 11:57:14 pm »
UPDATE: US-MEXICO AND US-CANADA BORDERS CLOSED TO NON-ESSENTIAL TRAVEL AND COMMERCE.

President Trump just announced that the US and Mexico will close the border to all non essential travel about 5 hours ago, same as the Canadian border effectiveMMarch 25, and he also invoked the War Production Act. Trade will not stop across the borders, however. 1/2 of all the trade the US does in the world annually occurs between the US Mexico and Canada, about 50-50 % between Canada and Mexico.

CNN: Trump administration limits nonessential travel between US and Mexico.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/us-mexico-border/index.html
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 12:02:56 am by J. Wilhelm »

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #129 on: March 21, 2020, 03:07:46 am »
I work for a store that sells food (frozen, canned, dry goods), cleaning supplies, health and hygiene products etc. The company considers this essential and thus intends to remain open. I've also heard from some people, that signs suggest a major close down of our state and possible the country on Monday, for all non-emergency personel.

So I have no idea if I will be working or not.

And if I find myself not working, I am trying to connect with one of my social activism friends who is organizing groups to pick up and deliver supplies to those in isolation, but again that effort might get shut down as non-emergency personel.

Outside of that I'm also considering using one of my youtube channels as a sort of Pen Pal with a face to those in isolation to ease the time.
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #130 on: March 21, 2020, 04:17:39 am »
I work for a store that sells food (frozen, canned, dry goods), cleaning supplies, health and hygiene products etc. The company considers this essential and thus intends to remain open. I've also heard from some people, that signs suggest a major close down of our state and possible the country on Monday, for all non-emergency personel.

So I have no idea if I will be working or not.

And if I find myself not working, I am trying to connect with one of my social activism friends who is organizing groups to pick up and deliver supplies to those in isolation, but again that effort might get shut down as non-emergency personel.

Outside of that I'm also considering using one of my youtube channels as a sort of Pen Pal with a face to those in isolation to ease the time.

I was thinking along the same lines as you. But like you say everything may be shut down. I have been reduced to 1/2 time, about 20 hours of work, and because the area where I work is a poor area where sanitation is less than ideal, and since I'm taking the bus, I arranged to split the available (nominal) 38 hours with the other cashier, so I will work only 3 days of the week, but at least 7 hour shifts. That gives me time to get something else to do.

I'm basically $800 short. I can't pay rent, I can't pay school loans. I may be able to get rid of the school loans by way of deferment. And hopefully I can reach a deal with my landlord. If he doesn't accept 50 % rent, then I'll need to find someplace else to live. He can't evict me by law, for the moment, thanks to the orders issued by the Governor, but I don't know how long it will last. The Texas Workforce Commission issued a work program that pays for the lost hours, but the loss of hours can't be more than 40%, and my loss is 50%. The direct aid from the federal government will likely only be $600, payable I don't know how and I don't know when.

And I can thank my lucky stars that I still have a job and I'm an hourly worker! Otherwise as an independent contractor I'd be royally screwed.

The census canvassing this summer may be postponed as well, so not even that. Since I've done canvassing before 10 years ago, I'd probably become a team leader this time. Can you imagine trying to get an Anti-government nutter to answer questions while he's sick with COVID and you're the scrawny census guy with the glasses and the face mask... In 100 degree weather??

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #131 on: March 21, 2020, 06:08:27 am »
SNIP ... The census canvassing this summer may be postponed as well, so not even that. Since I've done canvassing before 10 years ago, I'd probably become a team leader this time. Can you imagine trying to get an Anti-government nutter to answer questions while he's sick with COVID and you're the scrawny census guy with the glasses and the face mask... In 100 degree weather??

Hey, c'mon J. Wilhelm, where's your sense of adventure - I'm sure you would have a grand time, especially with the anti-government nutters!  ;D ;D

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #132 on: March 21, 2020, 06:33:40 am »
I think you need a motor car to work in the census taking, and he doesn't have one (recall the "riding the bus" scenario he described), and also his DL has [apparently] expired.  :P
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 07:20:48 am by Deimos »
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #133 on: March 21, 2020, 01:04:36 pm »
I think you need a motor car to work in the census taking, and he doesn't have one (recall the "riding the bus" scenario he described), and also his DL has [apparently] expired.  :P

That is, unfortunately the case. There are ways around that, however, and the Census is not happening right now (we just got the envelope in the mail. If I understand correctly we're still months away from the canvassing phase (I need to check my records to see exactly when it took place last decade, but I remember warm weather).

A lot of barriers and waiting periods are being waived for things like DLs if I wish to get one outside of Austin, since not all of the state is shut down (they also waived suspended license penalties, on account people need to be able to move during an emergency) , but the lack of vehicle remains thebbiggest issue. My uncle, provided he's still in Austin could potentially lend me one. And my roommate has a broken down truck I can fix. Where there's a will there's a way. It's all about $, though.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #134 on: March 21, 2020, 04:54:12 pm »
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #135 on: March 21, 2020, 09:11:40 pm »
OK, so it looks like the virus is trying to play "catch-up" in AZ  :P :P :P

From the local media:
New data from the Arizona Department of Health Services puts the number of coronavirus cases in Arizona at 104. That’s up from the 71 reported Friday. Our state’s first COVID-19 death – a man in his 50s who had underlying health conditions – was reported Thursday. He worked for the City of Phoenix Aviation Department in a remote office and “had minimal interaction with any of the terminals and related airport facilities,” according to the City.
The state says it is waiting on results from 122 tests. A total of 394 people have been tested.


Also no county has escaped the infection.

    Maricopa County: 49  (the Phx metro area, and still a pretty low count considering there are 4.7M people here)
    Pinal County: 14
    Pima County: 12
    Coconino County: 11
    Navajo County: 10
    Apache County 3
    Cochise County: 1
    Graham County: 1
    Santa Cruz County: 1
    Yavapai County: 1
    Yuma County: 1

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #136 on: March 22, 2020, 03:28:30 am »
There are 26,784 confirmed cases in the US already, I hope it doesn't get any worse than this.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #137 on: March 22, 2020, 04:20:46 am »
There are 26,784 confirmed cases in the US already, I hope it doesn't get any worse than this.

um, you better brace yourself. I've seen projections of around 40% of the population of the US will become infected. The population of the US is about 327 million. We'll never know all the infections, because many will be non-symptomatic, some will just be sick for a while. only about 20 percent of those who get it will require hospitalisation, and somewhere between 1 and 5% of those infected will die.

But with those numbers... we are still talking about something devestating in numbers.

If we are proactive and do our best we may do way better at avoiding the bad end of this all, but even the best projections are a horror show.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #138 on: March 22, 2020, 08:52:17 am »
Most states in Australia have decided to act semi-independently and shut their borders to each other (which theoretically may be against the constitution if it is absolute closure since we are a commonwealth that allows few barriers to trade and travel between the states and territories). Some have decided to start the "Easter" school holidays a few days early. They have also decided to shut non-essential services from Tuesdays. No-one is sure yet what is regarded as non-essential. Unfortunately the alcoholic culture of Australia has meant some people are worried that they won't be able to maintain their supply of beer and wine. Hopefully it won't get as silly as the dunny roll demand.

While my work (tertiary education) doesn't need physical face-to-face interactions, many of my workmates have had to shift their interactions to online ones (I already teach mainly online). Not easy for all. It will be very interesting how this all affects the broader education industry once the danger reduces.

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« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 09:16:30 am by Sorontar »
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #139 on: March 22, 2020, 11:19:11 am »
Most states in Australia have decided to act semi-independently and shut their borders to each other (which theoretically may be against the constitution if it is absolute closure since we are a commonwealth that allows few barriers to trade and travel between the states and territories). Some have decided to start the "Easter" school holidays a few days early. They have also decided to shut non-essential services from Tuesdays. No-one is sure yet what is regarded as non-essential. Unfortunately the alcoholic culture of Australia has meant some people are worried that they won't be able to maintain their supply of beer and wine. Hopefully it won't get as silly as the dunny roll demand.

While my work (tertiary education) doesn't need physical face-to-face interactions, many of my workmates have had to shift their interactions to online ones (I already teach mainly online). Not easy for all. It will be very interesting how this all affects the broader education industry once the danger reduces.
Sorontar

Technically, we are a Federation of states, rather than a Commonwealth, and each state has the right, if ever they so choose, to withdraw from the Federation. It explains why the states can act so independently.

I'm a Higher Degree by Research (HDR) student, working on a non-Australian topic, and as a distance ed student - my research area is primarily Ireland with a step across to Scotland, I I don't need to go to my Uni (UNE), unless I get hauled up by my primary supervisor.
The advantage of distance ed is that it is very flexible, so I was able to work on through the fires, and now Covid-19.

I am hoping to get into New South Wales from Victoria on Thursday for my orthopaedic appointment, but who knows!

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #140 on: March 22, 2020, 12:03:07 pm »
Fact.

I'm 'connected' to about 400 people on 'social media'.

So far 17 have announced they have it.
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J. Wilhelm

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #141 on: March 22, 2020, 04:53:59 pm »
New York State yesterday had more than 10 000 cases of COVID 19. The whole of the United States had 20 000.

This is going to be interesting.

The mayor of Austin has issued new rules whereby retailers (with their maximum 10 people limit) as well as essential businesses like supermarkets will have to force social distancing between customers, not just employees. The suggestion is to force people in line to place a full length supermarket cart between themselves and the next person inside and outside the shop. Or have floor markings to instruct people where to stand or walk.

I'm living in a dystopian science fiction novel.

That means that the line of people being "throttled" into the supermarket will get much longer and for the life of me I don't know how you will police people, especially in the poorer more marginalized (ie ghetto) areas of Austin. Placing markers on the pavement and throttling people in and out of the supermarket is fine but ridiculous to implement, and often impossible.

Waiting in line for food in supermarkets for extended periods, right next to people who may be infected works entirely against distancing, and so does travelling by bus or mass transit (in my case 30 minutes per ride in a closed space) . These are the remaining points of infection.This happened all of last week. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH. And the mayor of Austin just realized that....  ::)

I'm just one frozen bag of chicken away from completing a 42-day ration. It's cold and raining outside. And at this point, I wish the mayor would just issue martial law, and everybody stayed home (no mass transportation no customers waiting outside supermarkets). Last week we had an "only essential business operation" type rule, but supermarkets were just "throttling" lines of people, small businesses like retail with less than 10 people in the perimeter of their business were allowed to operate, same for food industry but restricted to take-out and home delivery only (all dining areas and exterior tables closed) , and pharmacies were the most restricted, they have already forced distancing between patients because the assumption is that COVID cases WILL walk into pharmacies, for obvious reasons..

But we could actually clean COVID off the streets now. The sooner individual cities and states stop *all motion of people*, the better the outcome, because those who are sick will emerge in their own homes, where they are supposed to be - off the street, and we can start dealing with the problem.

Much talk has been done about 40 to 70 percent of the people getting sick no matter what we do. It's true, it will happen, but there is no limit to how long we can delay getting sick or how few cases you can force within city limits or state/province /territory limits. The virus lives on surfaces for less than 7 days. The incubation period is 7-14 days. The illness can be cleared within 5 weeks, survival /death is determined within a similar period, and the peak of the curve in cases withing ansarea with full social isolation is estimated to be around 7 weeks.

The obvious thing to do is stop all motion of people until those who will get sick do so, and every household can be cleared or quarantined accordingly. The illness cycle is not that long, and a 7 week quarantine would do the trick with the initial 2- week incubation period and 5 week illness cycle already folded in. That is very easy to do everywhere right now in cities with "low" (eg less than 100) cases

The period also allows authorities to clean up the streets, and take care of the homeless. Once that quarantine has expired, you'll be able to expand the perimeter of the quarantine from individual homes to a radius of burrough or even city limit, allowing people inside that radius to resume some semblance of life, but strictly enforcing a shut border policy, closing off roads and jailing people crossing into city limits from outside the cleared zone. During the Spanish Flu, small cities in the US implemented similar tactics with success. But it required the isolation of a "clean city" from the rest of the world. Sounds draconian, but it's actually much easier than what we're doing right now, and it will be much less expensive in the long run.

Eventually you could expand the perimeter to the whole country, following the same rule. At that point it's an atypical border / immigration control (I know, the wet dream of some politicians just became a reality)
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 04:59:09 pm by J. Wilhelm »

Deimos

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #142 on: March 22, 2020, 07:44:56 pm »
AZ update:

PHOENIX — The number of COVID-19 cases in Arizona increased to 152 as of Sunday morning, according to the state health department. The Arizona Department of Health Services also reported a second death in the state from the virus. The individual was a man in his 70s with underlying health conditions

There are still 87 pending tests and 408 people have been tested, according to the health department's website. AZDHS says 282 tests have been ruled out.

Maricopa County has the most cases, with 81 confirmed. The counties' numbers break down like this:


    Maricopa: 81  (Wow....ours has not quite doubled in less than 48 hours)
    Apache: 3
    Cochise: 1
    Coconino: 14
    Gila: 0
    Graham: 2
    Greenlee: 0
    La Paz: 0
    Mohave: 0
    Pima: 17
    Pinal: 14
    Navajo: 16
    Santa Cruz: 1
    Yavapai: 3
    Yuma: 1
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 07:47:05 pm by Deimos »

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #143 on: March 22, 2020, 09:15:17 pm »
Fact.

I'm 'connected' to about 400 people on 'social media'.

So far 17 have announced they have it.

That's a fair few, considering.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #144 on: March 23, 2020, 12:54:00 am »
My Dear J

you wrote snip
>But we could actually clean COVID off the streets now. The sooner individual cities and states stop *all motion of people*,
>the better the outcome, because those who are sick will emerge in their own homes, where they are supposed to be -
> off the street, and we can start dealing with the problem. ....
>
> ....Eventually you could expand the perimeter to the whole country, following the same rule.
>  At that point it's an atypical border / immigration control (I know, the wet dream of some politicians just became a reality)
>

If I read the media correctly, you are describing what Red China did. And it is working for them.

They would have to go arrest all the moron college kids on the beach.

yhs
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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #145 on: March 23, 2020, 06:57:34 am »
My Dear J

you wrote snip
>But we could actually clean COVID off the streets now. The sooner individual cities and states stop *all motion of people*,
>the better the outcome, because those who are sick will emerge in their own homes, where they are supposed to be -
> off the street, and we can start dealing with the problem. ....
>
> ....Eventually you could expand the perimeter to the whole country, following the same rule.
>  At that point it's an atypical border / immigration control (I know, the wet dream of some politicians just became a reality)
>

If I read the media correctly, you are describing what Red China did. And it is working for them.

They would have to go arrest all the moron college kids on the beach.

yhs
prof amrvel


Arrest them! They're up to no good anyway. You should see what the mayors of Italian cities are telling violators of the curfew https://twitter.com/protectheflames/status/1241696164782669824?s=19

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #146 on: March 23, 2020, 10:17:14 am »
Australia banned any outdoor gatherings of 500 or more people. The next day over 500 went to Bondi Beach. The lifeguards and police shut down the entire beach in response.

Sorontar

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #147 on: March 23, 2020, 10:58:33 am »
Fact.

I'm 'connected' to about 400 people on 'social media'.

So far 17 have announced they have it.

That's a fair few, considering.

Now it's 22.

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #148 on: March 23, 2020, 09:15:41 pm »
Australia banned any outdoor gatherings of 500 or more people. The next day over 500 went to Bondi Beach. The lifeguards and police shut down the entire beach in response.

Sorontar

This is what happens with "10 people" bans, never mind 500:

Five of the Florida students who went to the beach for spring break tested positive for Cov2. On the opposite coast people in California swamped the beach. Yesterday walking toward the closest food shop, I saw more people walking the streets and with their kids and dogs than I've ever seen before since I moved to this area.

This is ridiculous, Social Distancing my foot! The bus drivers require passengers to climb through the back door, but then they demand payment which forces the rider to walk through the aisle all the way to the driver!! What kind of nonsense is that?

More than ever we need to force martial law immediately and implement the Chinese method ASAP. I don't care if it's "unconstitutional." In only 7 weeks entire populations could be flushed out of COVID and parsed between ill and healthy, and then we can implement a "feudal" system to isolate "clean" cities and towns so people can go back to some level of normalcy. If you don't have enough people to police the areas there are plenty of unemployed people desperately looking for income!
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 09:18:02 pm by J. Wilhelm »

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Re: Covid-19 facts, fallacies, and prepardness
« Reply #149 on: March 23, 2020, 09:36:54 pm »
AZ update:
     Total cases in state:  152   234
     Deaths: 2    no change  

    Maricopa (me): 81  139
    Apache: 3   4
    Cochise: 1   no change
    Coconino: 14  17
    Gila: 0         no change
    Graham: 2    no change
    Greenlee: 0  no change
    La Paz: 0     no change
    Mohave: 0   no change
    Pima: 17  24
    Pinal: 14  17
    Navajo: 16    25
    Santa Cruz: 1  no change
    Yavapai: 3      nochange
    Yuma: 1         no change

Not Good, of course, but not too bad either, all things considered....
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 10:02:35 pm by Deimos »